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Strategic Asset Allocation for Central Bank’s Management of Foreign Reserves: A new approach

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  • Zhang, Zhichao
  • Chau, Frankie
  • Xie, Li

Abstract

This paper proposes a new approach to strategic asset allocation for central banks’ management of foreign reserves. This eclectic approach combines the behavioural portfolio management in the framework of mean-variance mental accounting (MVMA) with the improvements on asset return forecast offered by the Black-Litterman (B-L) model, proving particularly suitable for the reserve management policy with multiple objectives. The B-L model is embedded into the MVMA framework to obtain both the equilibrium and the B-L returns as our improved forecasts, formulating forward-looking investment strategies. The approach is applied to the case of China to derive optimal asset allocation for the Chinese central bank.

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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 43654.

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Date of creation: 21 Dec 2012
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:43654

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Keywords: Reserve Management; Strategic Asset Allocation; Mental Accounting; Black-Litterman model; China’s Foreign Reserves;

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  1. Shefrin, Hersh & Statman, Meir, 2000. "Behavioral Portfolio Theory," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 35(02), pages 127-151, June.
  2. Das, Sanjiv & Markowitz, Harry & Scheid, Jonathan & Statman, Meir, 2010. "Portfolio Optimization with Mental Accounts," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 45(02), pages 311-334, April.
  3. Best, Michael J & Grauer, Robert R, 1991. "On the Sensitivity of Mean-Variance-Efficient Portfolios to Changes in Asset Means: Some Analytical and Computational Results," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 4(2), pages 315-42.
  4. José Luis Barros Fernandes & José Renato Haas Ornelas & Oscar Augusto Martínez Cusicanqui, 2011. "Combining equilibrium, resampling, and analysts' views in portfolio optimization," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Portfolio and risk management for central banks and sovereign wealth funds, volume 58, pages 75-84 Bank for International Settlements.
  5. Michaud, Richard O. & Michaud, Robert O., 2008. "Efficient Asset Management: A Practical Guide to Stock Portfolio Optimization and Asset Allocation," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, Oxford University Press, edition 2, number 9780195331912, October.
  6. Harry Markowitz, 1952. "Portfolio Selection," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, American Finance Association, vol. 7(1), pages 77-91, 03.
  7. Rosella Giacometti & Marida Bertocchi & Svetlozar T. Rachev & Frank J. Fabozzi, 2007. "Stable distributions in the Black-Litterman approach to asset allocation," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(4), pages 423-433.
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