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Understanding international crime trends: The legacy of preschool lead exposure

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  • Nevin, Rick

Abstract

This study shows a very strong association between preschool blood lead and subsequent crime rate trends over several decades in the USA, Britain, Canada, France, Australia, Finland, Italy, West Germany, and New Zealand. The relationship is characterized by best-fit lags (highest R2 and t-value for blood lead) consistent with neurobehavioral damage in the first year of life and the peak age of offending for index crime, burglary, and violent crime. The impact of blood lead is also evident in age-specific arrest and incarceration trends. Regression analysis of average 1985-1994 murder rates across USA cities suggests that murder could be especially associated with more severe cases of childhood lead poisoning.

Suggested Citation

  • Nevin, Rick, 2007. "Understanding international crime trends: The legacy of preschool lead exposure," MPRA Paper 35338, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:35338
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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/35338/1/MPRA_paper_35338.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Steven D. Levitt, 2004. "Understanding Why Crime Fell in the 1990s: Four Factors that Explain the Decline and Six that Do Not," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 18(1), pages 163-190, Winter.
    2. Nevin, Rick & Bender, Christopher & Gazan, Heather, 1999. "More evidence of rational market values for home energy efficiency," MPRA Paper 35344, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. John J. Donohue & Steven D. Levitt, 1999. "Legalized Abortion and Crime," JCPR Working Papers 104, Northwestern University/University of Chicago Joint Center for Poverty Research.
    4. Nevin, Rick & Jacobs, David / E., 2006. "Windows of opportunity: lead poisoning prevention, housing affordability, and energy conservation," MPRA Paper 35342, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Nevin, Rick, 1999. "How lead exposure relates to temporal changes in IQ, violent crime, and unwed pregnancy," MPRA Paper 35324, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. מחקר - ביטוח לאומי, 2006. "Annual Survey 2005," Working Papers 15, National Insurance Institute of Israel.
    7. Rick Nevin & David Jacobs, 2006. "Windows of opportunity: Lead poisoning prevention, housing affordability, and energy conservation," Housing Policy Debate, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(1), pages 185-207.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Lead Poisoning; Crime; IQ; Behavior; Violence;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • K32 - Law and Economics - - Other Substantive Areas of Law - - - Energy, Environmental, Health, and Safety Law
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health

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