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Public expenditure and revenue in Italy, 1862-1993

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  • Magazzino, Cosimo
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    Abstract

    This study examines the long-run equilibrium relationship between government expenditure and revenue in Italy from 1862 to 1993, using cointegration techniques and the direction of causality relationship in the long and short runs between the variables through integrating the Error Correction Model (ECM) into the traditional Granger causality test. A Granger non-causality test (due to Toda and Yamamoto) is also performed. Unit root tests have been applied in order to investigate the stationarity properties of the series. Moreover, three more homogeneous sub-period (1862-1913; 1914-1946; 1947-1993) have been analyzed. The nexus between public expenditure and revenue has been discussed also by Impulse Response Functions (IRFs) and Forecast Error Variance Decompositions (FEVDs). Empirical findings show how, for each sub-period, the policy adopted reflect the prevailing paradigm of public finance (neutral or orthodox finance, Keynesian finance and discretionary or compensatory finance, respectively).

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 27308.

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    Date of creation: 08 Dec 2010
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    Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:27308

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    Keywords: Government expenditure; government revenue; stationarity; cointegration; causality; spend and tax; tax and spend; Italy.;

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    20. Astrid Lemmer & Dan Stegarescu, 2009. "Revenue windfalls and expenditure slippages: Disappointing implementation of the reformed stability and growth pact," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 44(3), pages 159-165, May.
    21. Bradley T. Ewing & James E. Payne & Mark A. Thompson & Omar M. Al-Zoubi, 2006. "Government Expenditures and Revenues: Evidence from Asymmetric Modeling," Southern Economic Journal, Southern Economic Association, vol. 73(1), pages 190–200, July.
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