Results of a special questionnaire for participants in the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF)
AbstractThis document provides a summary of the aggregate results of a special questionnaire which was sent to the participants in the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) in autumn 2008, in the context of the ten-year anniversary of the SPF’s launch in January 1999. In summary, the results show that the SPF responses are quite timely and that the forecasts are based on heterogeneous assumptions that are predominantly generated in house. In addition, although both structural and time series models are widely used, judgement also plays a key role, in particular for the reported probability distributions. It is thus very important to consider the heterogeneity of the SPF forecasts when analysing and interpreting the results of the SPF.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 20751.
Date of creation: Apr 2009
Date of revision:
SPF; Survey; Forecasts; Expectations; Formation;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
- D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
- E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- C42 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Survey Methods
- E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2010-02-27 (All new papers)
- NEP-EEC-2010-02-27 (European Economics)
- NEP-FOR-2010-02-27 (Forecasting)
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