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Bubbles and contagion in English house prices

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  • Fry, J. M.
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Abstract

Using methods originating from statistical physics we model bubbles in English house prices. It is found that there was a nationwide housing bubble 2002-2007. Typically prices were 30-40% over-valued and fell around 20%. London is atypical in that the level of over-pricing was lower, only around 20%, and experienced a drop in prices of only around 15%. There is some suggestion of contagious effects, with the bubble in London affecting prices in Yorkshire and the North.

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File URL: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/17687/
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 17687.

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Date of creation: Oct 2009
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:17687

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Related research

Keywords: financial crashes; super-exponential growth; illusion of certainty; contagion; housing-bubble; Enlish house prices;

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  1. W. -X. Zhou & D. Sornette, 2003. "2000-2003 Real Estate Bubble in the UK but not in the USA," Papers physics/0303028, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2003.
  2. J. A. Feigenbaum, 2001. "More on a statistical analysis of log-periodic precursors to financial crashes," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(5), pages 527-532.
  3. J. A. Feigenbaum, 2001. "A statistical analysis of log-periodic precursors to financial crashes," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(3), pages 346-360.
  4. D. Sornette & Y. Malevergne, 2001. "From Rational Bubbles to Crashes," Papers cond-mat/0102305, arXiv.org.
  5. Andersen, J.V. & Sornette, D., 2004. "Fearless versus fearful speculative financial bubbles," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 337(3), pages 565-585.
  6. D. Sornette & J. V. Andersen, 2001. "A Nonlinear Super-Exponential Rational Model of Speculative Financial Bubbles," Papers cond-mat/0104341, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2002.
  7. Sornette, Didier & Johansen, Anders, 1997. "Large financial crashes," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 245(3), pages 411-422.
  8. George Chang & James Feigenbaum, 2006. "A Bayesian analysis of log-periodic precursors to financial crashes," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(1), pages 15-36.
  9. George Chang & James Feigenbaum, 2008. "Detecting log-periodicity in a regime-switching model of stock returns," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(7), pages 723-738.
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Cited by:
  1. Diego Ardila & Peter Cauwels & Dorsa Sanadgol & Didier Sornette, 2013. "Is There A Real Estate Bubble in Switzerland?," Papers 1303.4514, arXiv.org.

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