Bubbles and contagion in English house prices
AbstractUsing methods originating from statistical physics we model bubbles in English house prices. It is found that there was a nationwide housing bubble 2002-2007. Typically prices were 30-40% over-valued and fell around 20%. London is atypical in that the level of over-pricing was lower, only around 20%, and experienced a drop in prices of only around 15%. There is some suggestion of contagious effects, with the bubble in London affecting prices in Yorkshire and the North.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 17687.
Date of creation: Oct 2009
Date of revision:
financial crashes; super-exponential growth; illusion of certainty; contagion; housing-bubble; Enlish house prices;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
- C0 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General
- R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes
- C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General
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