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More on a statistical analysis of log-periodic precursors to financial crashes

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  • J. A. Feigenbaum

Abstract

We respond to Sornette and Johansen's criticisms of our findings regarding log-periodic precursors to financial crashes. Included in this paper are discussions of the Sornette-Johansen theoretical paradigm, traditional methods of identifying log-periodic precursors, the behaviour of the first differences of a log-periodic price series and the distribution of drawdowns for a securities price.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Quantitative Finance.

Volume (Year): 1 (2001)
Issue (Month): 5 ()
Pages: 527-532

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Handle: RePEc:taf:quantf:v:1:y:2001:i:5:p:527-532

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Cited by:
  1. Fry, John, 2012. "Exogenous and endogenous crashes as phase transitions in complex financial systems," MPRA Paper 36202, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. John M. Fry, 2009. "Statistical modelling of financial crashes: Rapid growth, illusion of certainty and contagion," EERI Research Paper Series EERI_RP_2009_10, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
  3. Hans-Christian Graf v. Bothmer, 2003. "Significance of log-periodic signatures in cumulative noise," Papers cond-mat/0302507, arXiv.org, revised May 2003.
  4. Fry, J. M., 2010. "Bubbles and crashes in finance: A phase transition from random to deterministic behaviour in prices," MPRA Paper 24778, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  5. Fry, John, 2013. "Bubbles, shocks and elementary technical trading strategies," MPRA Paper 47052, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  6. Wosnitza, Jan Henrik & Leker, Jens, 2014. "Can log-periodic power law structures arise from random fluctuations?," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 401(C), pages 228-250.
  7. Wosnitza, Jan Henrik & Denz, Cornelia, 2013. "Liquidity crisis detection: An application of log-periodic power law structures to default prediction," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(17), pages 3666-3681.
  8. Fry, J. M., 2010. "Gaussian and non-Gaussian models for financial bubbles via econophysics," MPRA Paper 27307, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  9. Thomas Lux, 2006. "Applications of Statistical Physics in Finance and Economics," Working Papers wpn06-07, Warwick Business School, Finance Group.
  10. Fry, J. M., 2009. "Bubbles and contagion in English house prices," MPRA Paper 17687, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  11. Zhou, Wei-Xing & Sornette, Didier, 2006. "Is there a real-estate bubble in the US?," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 361(1), pages 297-308.

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