IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/13969.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Demand for Foreign Exchange Reserves in India: A Co-integration Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Prabheesh, K P
  • Malathy, D
  • Madhumathi, R

Abstract

Using cointegraion and vector error correction approach, we estimate India’s demand for foreign exchange reserves over the period 1983:1-2005:1. Our results establish that the ratio imports to GDP, the ratio of broad money to GDP,exchange rate flexibility and interest rate differential determine India’s long-run reserves demand function. Our empirical results show that reserve accumulation in India is highly sensitive to capital account vulnerability and less sensitive to its opportunity cost. The speed of adjustment coefficient of vector error correction model suggests that Reserve Bank of India has to engage in more active reserve management practices.

Suggested Citation

  • Prabheesh, K P & Malathy, D & Madhumathi, R, 2007. "Demand for Foreign Exchange Reserves in India: A Co-integration Approach," MPRA Paper 13969, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:13969
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/13969/1/MPRA_paper_13969.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Grubel, Herbert G, 1971. "The Demand for International Reserves: A Critical Review of the Literature," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 1148-1166, December.
    2. Huang, Tai-Hsin & Shen, Chung-Hua, 1999. "Applying the seasonal error correction model to the demand for international reserves in Taiwan," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 107-131, January.
    3. Clark, Peter B, 1970. "Optimum International Reserves and the Speed of Adjustment," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 78(2), pages 356-376, March-Apr.
    4. Frenkel, Jacob A, 1974. "The Demand for International Reserves by Developed and Less-Developed Countries," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 41(161), pages 14-24, February.
    5. Marc-André Gosselin & Nicolas Parent, 2005. "An Empirical Analysis of Foreign Exchange Reserves in Emerging Asia," Staff Working Papers 05-38, Bank of Canada.
    6. Edwards, Sebastian, 1984. "The Demand for International Reserves and Monetary Equilibrium: Some Evidence from Developing Countries," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 66(3), pages 495-500, August.
    7. Joshua Aizenman & Nancy Marion, 2004. "International Reserve Holdings with Sovereign Risk and Costly Tax Collection," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 114(497), pages 569-591, July.
    8. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-1072, June.
    9. Mr. Robert P Flood & Ms. Nancy P. Marion, 2002. "Holding International Reserves in an Era of High Capital Mobility," IMF Working Papers 2002/062, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Renu Kohli, 2004. "Capital Account Liberalisation: Empirical Evidence and Policy Issues II," International Finance 0405009, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. John F. O. Bilson & Jacob A. Frenkel, 1979. "Dynamic Adjustment and the Demand for International Reserves," NBER Working Papers 0407, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Granger, C. W. J. & Newbold, P., 1974. "Spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 111-120, July.
    13. Ramachandran, M., 2004. "The optimal level of international reserves: evidence for India," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 83(3), pages 365-370, June.
    14. Ford, J L & Huang, Guobo, 1994. "The Demand for International Reserves in China: An ECM Model with Domestic Monetary Disequilibrium," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 61(243), pages 379-397, August.
    15. Kelly, Michael G, 1970. "The Demand for International Reserves," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 60(4), pages 655-667, September.
    16. Johansen, Søren & Juselius, Katarina, 1992. "Testing structural hypotheses in a multivariate cointegration analysis of the PPP and the UIP for UK," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1-3), pages 211-244.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Po-Chin Wu & Chung-Chih Lee, 2018. "The non-linear impact of monetary policy on international reserves: macroeconomic variables nexus," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 45(1), pages 165-185, February.
    2. Samih Antoine Azar & Wael Aboukhodor, 2017. "Foreign Exchange Reserves and the Macro-economy in the GCC Countries," Accounting and Finance Research, Sciedu Press, vol. 6(3), pages 1-72, August.
    3. Aviral Kumar Tiwari & Phouphet Kyophilavong, 2017. "Exchange Rates and International Reserves in India," South Asia Economic Journal, Institute of Policy Studies of Sri Lanka, vol. 18(1), pages 76-93, March.
    4. Eliza, Nor & M., Azali & Law, Siong-Hook & Lee, Chin, 2008. "Demand For International Reserves in ASEAN-5 Economies," MPRA Paper 11735, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Nebiye, Sinem & Yamak, Nebiye, 2014. "Demand for International Reserves in Turkey," Romanian Economic Journal, Department of International Business and Economics from the Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest, vol. 17(52), pages 63-76, June.
    6. Shijaku, Gerti & Dushku, Elona, 2017. "Foreign reserve holdings: an extended study through risk-inspired motives," MPRA Paper 79199, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Shijaku, Gerti, 2012. "Optimal level of reserve holding: an empirical investigation in the case of Albania," MPRA Paper 79091, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Saidul Islam, 2021. "Macroeconomic determinants of the demand for international reserves in Bangladesh," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 1(2), pages 1-29, February.
    9. Moid U. Ahmad, 2015. "Does CRR and Repo Change Affect Corporate Output?," Jindal Journal of Business Research, , vol. 4(1-2), pages 115-125, June.
    10. Mohammad Kashif & P. Sridharan & S. Thiyagarajan, 2017. "Factors Affecting International Reserves with Special Reference to India," Vision, , vol. 21(4), pages 339-349, December.
    11. Moid U. AHMAD & Shamima NASRIN, 2017. "An analysis of the effect of monetary policy changes on macroeconomic factors," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(2(611), S), pages 303-318, Summer.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hee-Ryang Ra, 2008. "Dilution of Opportunity Cost Effect on the Demand for International Reserves in the High Reserve Era," Korean Economic Review, Korean Economic Association, vol. 24, pages 151-171.
    2. David Fernando López Angarita, 2006. "Nivel de reservas internacionales y riesgo cambiario en Colombia," Revista de Economía Institucional, Universidad Externado de Colombia - Facultad de Economía, vol. 8(15), pages 117-159, July-Dece.
    3. Karim Khan & Eatzaz Ahmed, 2005. "The Demand for International Reserves: A Case Study of Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 44(4), pages 939-957.
    4. Sula, Ozan, 2008. "Demand for International Reserves: A Quantile Regression Approach," MPRA Paper 11680, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Edwards, Sebastian, 1984. "The Demand for International Reserves and Monetary Equilibrium: Some Evidence from Developing Countries," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 66(3), pages 495-500, August.
    6. David Fernando LOPEZ ANGARITA, 2006. "Nivel óptimo de Reservas Internacionales y crisis cambiaria en Colombia," Archivos de Economía 3273, Departamento Nacional de Planeación.
    7. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Sengupta, Rajeswari, 2011. "Accumulation of reserves and keeping up with the Joneses: The case of LATAM economies," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 19-31, January.
    8. Antonio Francisco A. Silva Jr, 2011. "The Self-insurance Role of International Reserves and the 2008-2010 Crisis," Working Papers Series 256, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    9. Miss Nkunde Mwase, 2012. "How much should I hold? Reserve Adequacy in Emerging Markets and Small Islands," IMF Working Papers 2012/205, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Giulio Cifarelli & Giovanna Paladino, 2008. "Reserve overstocking in a highly integrated world. New evidence from Asia and Latin America," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(4), pages 315-336.
    11. Yin-Wong Cheung & Hiro Ito, 2009. "A Cross-Country Empirical Analysis of International Reserves," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(4), pages 447-481.
    12. Samba Michel Cyrille, 2015. "International Reserves Holdings in the CEMAC Area: Adequacy and Motives," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 27(4), pages 415-427, December.
    13. Sula, Ozan, 2011. "Demand for international reserves in developing nations: A quantile regression approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 764-777, September.
    14. Antonio Francisco Silva Jr. & Érica Domingos da Silva, 2004. "Optimal International Reserves Holdings In Emerging Markets Economies: The Brazilian Case," Anais do XXXII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 32nd Brazilian Economics Meeting] 078, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    15. repec:zbw:bofrdp:1994_015 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Lehto, Taru, 1994. "The level of a central bank's international reserves: theory and cross-country analysis," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 15/1994, Bank of Finland.
    17. Aizenman, Joshua & Cheung, Yin-Wong & Ito, Hiro, 2015. "International reserves before and after the global crisis: Is there no end to hoarding?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 102-126.
    18. Sebastian Edwards, 1981. "The Demand for International Reserves and Exchange Rate Adjustments: The Case of LDC's, 1964-1972," UCLA Economics Working Papers 229, UCLA Department of Economics.
    19. Diego Bastourre & Jorge Carrera & Javier Ibarlucia, 2009. "What is Driving Reserve Accumulation? A Dynamic Panel Data Approach," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(4), pages 861-877, September.
    20. Elbadawi, Ibrahim A, 1990. "The Sudan Demand for International Reserve: A Case of a Labour-Exporting Country," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 57(225), pages 73-89, February.
    21. Lehto, Taru, 1994. "The level of a central bank's international reserves : theory and cross-country analysis," Research Discussion Papers 15/1994, Bank of Finland.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    foreign exchange reserves; capital account vulnerability; current account vulnerability; cointegration;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:13969. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.