S-shaped utility, subprime crash and the black swan
AbstractI propose an S-shaped utility function of consumption which, combined with an heterogeneous agents and external habit setting, fits well the first order moments of the American financial and macroeconomic time series relevant for the equity premium puzzle in the second half of XX century. The average relative risk aversion of the agents remains in the 0-3 range. A "black swan"-kind phenomenon makes two of the 50 years considered (the two oil shocks) responsible for half the average of the stochastic discount factor, thus bringing the annual subjective discount factor to a very low level, around 0.5, which solves the risk-free puzzle. The shape of the relative risk aversion function of consumption suggests an explanation for the 2008 suprime crash akin to the breaking of waves on a beach in a lifecycle overlapping generations model.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 12122.
Date of creation: 12 Dec 2008
Date of revision:
financial puzzles; subprime crash; black swan; S-shaped utility;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
- D91 - Microeconomics - - Intertemporal Choice - - - Intertemporal Household Choice; Life Cycle Models and Saving
- E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2008-12-21 (All new papers)
- NEP-DGE-2008-12-21 (Dynamic General Equilibrium)
- NEP-HIS-2008-12-21 (Business, Economic & Financial History)
- NEP-MAC-2008-12-21 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-UPT-2008-12-21 (Utility Models & Prospect Theory)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Harry Markowitz, 1952. "The Utility of Wealth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 60, pages 151.
- Cochrane, John H. & Campbell, John, 1999.
"By Force of Habit: A Consumption-Based Explanation of Aggregate Stock Market Behavior,"
3119444, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- John Y. Campbell & John H. Cochrane, 1994. "By Force of Habit: A Consumption-Based Explanation of Aggregate Stock Market Behavior," CRSP working papers 412, Center for Research in Security Prices, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago.
- John Y. Campbell & John H. Cochrane, 1994. "By force of habit: a consumption-based explanation of aggregate stock market behavior," Working Papers 94-17, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
- John Y. Campbell & John H. Cochrane, 1995. "By Force of Habit: A Consumption-Based Explanation of Aggregate Stock Market Behavior," NBER Working Papers 4995, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Kimball, Miles S, 1990.
"Precautionary Saving in the Small and in the Large,"
Econometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 53-73, January.
- Miles S. Kimball, 1989. "Precautionary Saving in the Small and in the Large," NBER Working Papers 2848, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Björn Hagströmer & Richard G. Anderson & Jane M. Binner & Thomas Elger & Birger Nilsson, 2007.
"Mean-variance vs. full-scale optimization: broad evidence for the U.K,"
2007-016, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Hagströmer, Björn & Anderson, Richard G. & Binner, Jane & Elger, Thomas & Nilsson, Birger, 2007. "Mean-Variance vs. Full-Scale Optimization: Broad Evidence for the UK," Working Papers 2008:1, Lund University, Department of Economics.
- Jonathan A. Parker & Christian Julliard, 2005.
"Consumption Risk and the Cross Section of Expected Returns,"
Journal of Political Economy,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(1), pages 185-222, February.
- Jonathan A. Parker & Christian Julliard, 2004. "Consumption Risk and the Cross-Section of Expected Returns," Working Papers 138, Princeton University, Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Discussion Papers in Economics..
- Friedman, Daniel, 1989. "The S-Shaped Value Function as a Constrained Optimum," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(5), pages 1243-48, December.
- Andrew B. Abel, 2006. "Equity Premia with Benchmark Levels of Consumption: Closed-Form Results," NBER Working Papers 12290, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Amos Tversky & Daniel Kahneman, 1979.
"Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk,"
Levine's Working Paper Archive
7656, David K. Levine.
- Kahneman, Daniel & Tversky, Amos, 1979. "Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(2), pages 263-91, March.
- Cysne, Rubens Penha, 2005.
"Equity-Premium Puzzle: Evidence From Brazilian Data,"
Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE)
586, FGV/EPGE Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
- Rubens Penha Cysne, 2005. "Equity-Premium Puzzle: Evidence From Brazilian Data," Anais do XXXIII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 33th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 088, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
- Sergiy Gerasymchuk, 2008. "Asset return and wealth dynamics with reference dependent preferences and heterogeneous beliefs," Working Papers 160, Department of Applied Mathematics, Università Ca' Foscari Venezia.
- Neilson, William S, 2002. " Comparative Risk Sensitivity with Reference-Dependent Preferences," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 24(2), pages 131-42, March.
- Benartzi, Shlomo & Thaler, Richard H, 1995.
"Myopic Loss Aversion and the Equity Premium Puzzle,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics,
MIT Press, vol. 110(1), pages 73-92, February.
- Shlomo Benartzi & Richard H. Thaler, 1993. "Myopic Loss Aversion and the Equity Premium Puzzle," NBER Working Papers 4369, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Sergiy Gerasymchuk, 2007. "Mean-Variance Portfolio Selection with Reference Dependent Preferences," Working Papers 150, Department of Applied Mathematics, Università Ca' Foscari Venezia.
- Milton Friedman & L. J. Savage, 1948. "The Utility Analysis of Choices Involving Risk," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 56, pages 279.
- Nick Netzer, 2008.
"Evolution of Time Preferences and Attitudes Towards Risk,"
TWI Research Paper Series
29, Thurgauer Wirtschaftsinstitut, Universität Konstanz.
- Nick Netzer, 2009. "Evolution of Time Preferences and Attitudes toward Risk," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(3), pages 937-55, June.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ekkehart Schlicht).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.