IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/114556.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

On a Regime Switching Illiquid High Volatile Prediction Model for Cryptocurrencies

Author

Listed:
  • El-Khatib, Youssef
  • Hatemi-J, Abdulnasser

Abstract

Cryptocurrencies are increasingly utilized by investors and financial institutions worldwide. The current paper proposes a prediction model for a cryptocurrency that encompasses three properties observed in the markets for cryptocurrencies—namely high volatility, illiquidity, and regime shifts. By using Ito calculus, we provide a solution for the suggested stochastic differential equation (SDE) along with a proof. Moreover, numerical simulations are performed and are compared to the real data, which seems to capture the dynamics of the price path of a cryptocurrency in the real markets.

Suggested Citation

  • El-Khatib, Youssef & Hatemi-J, Abdulnasser, 2022. "On a Regime Switching Illiquid High Volatile Prediction Model for Cryptocurrencies," MPRA Paper 114556, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:114556
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/114556/1/MPRA_paper_114556.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Nassim Nicholas Taleb, 2021. "Bitcoin, currencies, and fragility," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(8), pages 1249-1255, August.
    2. Bhimani, Alnoor & Hausken, Kjell & Arif, Sameen, 2022. "Do national development factors affect cryptocurrency adoption?," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 181(C).
    3. Viktor Manahov, 2021. "Cryptocurrency liquidity during extreme price movements: is there a problem with virtual money?," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(2), pages 341-360, February.
    4. Keim, Donald B & Madhaven, Ananth, 1996. "The Upstairs Market for Large-Block Transactions: Analysis and Measurement of Price Effects," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 9(1), pages 1-36.
    5. Li, Dongxin & Hong, Yanran & Wang, Lu & Xu, Pengfei & Pan, Zhigang, 2022. "Extreme risk transmission among bitcoin and crude oil markets," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    6. Abdulnasser Hatemi-J, 2012. "Asymmetric causality tests with an application," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 43(1), pages 447-456, August.
    7. Youssef El-Khatib & Abdulnasser Hatemi-J, 2017. "Option valuation and hedging in markets with a crunch," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 44(5), pages 801-815, October.
    8. Urquhart, Andrew, 2016. "The inefficiency of Bitcoin," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 80-82.
    9. Hatemi-J, Abdulnasser & El-Khatib, Youssef, 2015. "Portfolio selection: An alternative approach," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 141-143.
    10. Nassim Nicholas Taleb, 2021. "Bitcoin, Currencies, and Fragility," Papers 2106.14204, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2021.
    11. Liu, Weiyi, 2019. "Portfolio diversification across cryptocurrencies," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 200-205.
    12. El-khatib, Youssef & Hatemi-J, Abdulnasser, 2013. "On option pricing in illiquid markets with random jumps," MPRA Paper 45172, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Dibeh, Ghassan & Harmanani, Haidar M., 2007. "Option pricing during post-crash relaxation times," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 380(C), pages 357-365.
    14. Youssef El-Khatib & Abdulnasser Hatemi-J, 2013. "On option pricing in illiquid markets with jumps," Papers 1304.4690, arXiv.org.
    15. Fan Fang & Carmine Ventre & Michail Basios & Leslie Kanthan & David Martinez-Rego & Fan Wu & Lingbo Li, 2022. "Cryptocurrency trading: a comprehensive survey," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 8(1), pages 1-59, December.
    16. Lucey, Brian M. & Vigne, Samuel A. & Yarovaya, Larisa & Wang, Yizhi, 2022. "The cryptocurrency uncertainty index," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 45(C).
    17. Chan, Louis K C & Lakonishok, Josef, 1995. "The Behavior of Stock Prices around Institutional Trades," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(4), pages 1147-1174, September.
    18. Cheah, Eng-Tuck & Fry, John, 2015. "Speculative bubbles in Bitcoin markets? An empirical investigation into the fundamental value of Bitcoin," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 32-36.
    19. Dwyer, Gerald P., 2015. "The economics of Bitcoin and similar private digital currencies," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 17(C), pages 81-91.
    20. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-654, May-June.
    21. Liu, Hong & Yong, Jiongmin, 2005. "Option pricing with an illiquid underlying asset market," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(12), pages 2125-2156, December.
    22. Alexander Lipton, 2021. "Cryptocurrencies change everything," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(8), pages 1257-1262, August.
    23. Yukun Liu & Aleh Tsyvinski & Xi Wu, 2022. "Common Risk Factors in Cryptocurrency," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 77(2), pages 1133-1177, April.
    24. Yukun Liu & Aleh Tsyvinski, 2021. "Risks and Returns of Cryptocurrency," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 34(6), pages 2689-2727.
    25. Fan Fang & Carmine Ventre & Michail Basios & Leslie Kanthan & Lingbo Li & David Martinez-Regoband & Fan Wu, 2020. "Cryptocurrency Trading: A Comprehensive Survey," Papers 2003.11352, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bennett, Donyetta & Mekelburg, Erik & Williams, T.H., 2023. "BeFi meets DeFi: A behavioral finance approach to decentralized finance asset pricing," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    2. Khaki, Audil & Prasad, Mason & Al-Mohamad, Somar & Bakry, Walid & Vo, Xuan Vinh, 2023. "Re-evaluating portfolio diversification and design using cryptocurrencies: Are decentralized cryptocurrencies enough?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    3. Laurens Swinkels, 2023. "Empirical evidence on the ownership and liquidity of real estate tokens," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 9(1), pages 1-29, December.
    4. Dunbar, Kwamie & Owusu-Amoako, Johnson, 2023. "Predictability of crypto returns: The impact of trading behavior," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(C).
    5. Helder Sebastião & Pedro Godinho, 2021. "Forecasting and trading cryptocurrencies with machine learning under changing market conditions," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 7(1), pages 1-30, December.
    6. Li, Yi & Urquhart, Andrew & Wang, Pengfei & Zhang, Wei, 2021. "MAX momentum in cryptocurrency markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    7. Rubaiyat Ahsan Bhuiyan & Afzol Husain & Changyong Zhang, 2023. "Diversification evidence of bitcoin and gold from wavelet analysis," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 9(1), pages 1-36, December.
    8. El-khatib, Youssef & Hatemi-J, Abdulnasser, 2013. "On option pricing in illiquid markets with random jumps," MPRA Paper 45172, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Daniel Tut, 2022. "Bitcoin: Future or Fad?," Springer Books, in: Thomas Walker & Frederick Davis & Tyler Schwartz (ed.), Big Data in Finance, pages 133-157, Springer.
    10. Bernhard Haslhofer & Burkhard Raunig & Pietro Saggase & Esther Segalla & Michael Sigmund & Felix Zangerl, 2023. "Assessing the Solvency of Virtual Asset Service Providers: Are Current Standards Sufficient? (Pietro Saggese, Esther Segalla, Michael Sigmund, Burkhard Raunig, Felix Zangerl, Bernhard Haslhofer)," Working Papers 248, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
    11. Assaf, Ata & Mokni, Khaled & Yousaf, Imran & Bhandari, Avishek, 2023. "Long memory in the high frequency cryptocurrency markets using fractal connectivity analysis: The impact of COVID-19," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    12. Aurelio F. Bariviera & Ignasi Merediz‐Solà, 2021. "Where Do We Stand In Cryptocurrencies Economic Research? A Survey Based On Hybrid Analysis," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(2), pages 377-407, April.
    13. Pietro Saggese & Esther Segalla & Michael Sigmund & Burkhard Raunig & Felix Zangerl & Bernhard Haslhofer, 2023. "Assessing the Solvency of Virtual Asset Service Providers: Are Current Standards Sufficient?," Papers 2309.16408, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2024.
    14. Almeida, José & Gonçalves, Tiago Cruz, 2023. "A systematic literature review of investor behavior in the cryptocurrency markets," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C).
    15. Youssef El-Khatib & Abdulnasser Hatemi-J, 2013. "On option pricing in illiquid markets with jumps," Papers 1304.4690, arXiv.org.
    16. Mariusz Tarnopolski, 2017. "Modeling the price of Bitcoin with geometric fractional Brownian motion: a Monte Carlo approach," Papers 1707.03746, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2017.
    17. Osman, Myriam Ben & Galariotis, Emilios & Guesmi, Khaled & Hamdi, Haykel & Naoui, Kamel, 2023. "Diversification in financial and crypto markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    18. Parthajit Kayal & Purnima Rohilla, 2021. "Bitcoin in the economics and finance literature: a survey," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 1(7), pages 1-21, July.
    19. Greg W. Hunter & Craig Kerr, 2019. "Virtual Money Illusion and the Fundamental Value of Non-Fiat Anonymous Digital Payment Methods," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 25(2), pages 151-164, May.
    20. Dunbar, Kwamie & Owusu-Amoako, Johnson, 2022. "Cryptocurrency returns under empirical asset pricing," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Stochastic Modeling; cryptocurrencies; illiquid; high volatility; regime switching; CTMC.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:114556. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.