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Méthodes quantitatives et prévisions économiques en période de crise. Intérêt et limites
[Quantitative methods and economic forecasts in times of crisis. Interest and limits]

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  • Bouzahzah, Mohamed

Abstract

This paper is a reflection on the use of quantitative methods to forecast the macroeconomic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. It was the subject of a communication at the webinar organized by the FSJES of Salé (Mohammed V University - Rabat) on June 23, 2020 under the theme "Quantitative methods and economic modeling to the test of Covid-19". It is actually about the predictive power of economic models in general and during the crisis of COVID-19 more specifically. It addresses questions about the interest, relevance and limitations of these forecasting exercises. It answers them by examining the first works published during the pandemic. Indeed, a few papers, among the most cited by the Google Scholar engine, are selected to show how economists adapted their econometric and forecasting models (CGEIM, DSGE, etc.) and which assumptions were used for forecasting purposes.

Suggested Citation

  • Bouzahzah, Mohamed, 2020. "Méthodes quantitatives et prévisions économiques en période de crise. Intérêt et limites [Quantitative methods and economic forecasts in times of crisis. Interest and limits]," MPRA Paper 113227, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:113227
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Robert J. Barro & José F. Ursúa & Joanna Weng, 2020. "The Coronavirus and the Great Influenza Pandemic: Lessons from the “Spanish Flu” for the Coronavirus’s Potential Effects on Mortality and Economic Activity," NBER Working Papers 26866, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Olivier J. Blanchard & Daniel Leigh, 2013. "Growth Forecast Errors and Fiscal Multipliers," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(3), pages 117-120, May.
    3. Warwick McKibbin & Roshen Fernando, 2021. "The Global Macroeconomic Impacts of COVID-19: Seven Scenarios," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 20(2), pages 1-30, Summer.
    4. repec:aei:rpaper:1008560098 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Robert Eyre & Flavia De Luca & Filippo Simini, 2020. "Social media usage reveals recovery of small businesses after natural hazard events," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 11(1), pages 1-10, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Quantitative methods; economic forecasting; COVID-19; Morocco;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • A11 - General Economics and Teaching - - General Economics - - - Role of Economics; Role of Economists
    • B00 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - General - - - History of Economic Thought, Methodology, and Heterodox Approaches
    • C00 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - General

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