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Assessing the Value of Seasonal Climate Forecasts on Farm-level Corn Production through Simulation Modeling

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Listed:
  • Gonzales, Kathrina G.
  • Predo, Canesio D.
  • de Guzman, Rosalina G.
  • Reyes, Celia M.

Abstract

Rainfall variability greatly influences corn production. Thus, a skillful forecast is potentially of value to the farmers because it could help them make a number of crop management decisions including crop choice, variety selection, timing of planting, and input usage. The study aims to develop an approach in estimating the economic value of seasonal climate forecast (SCF) to corn farmers under climate uncertainty. It focuses specifically on corn farmers in Isabela using the historical climate data of Tuguegarao from 1951 to 2006. The CERES-Maize model of the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) was used to simulate corn production and management practices of farmers to estimate the potential corn yields for wet and dry seasons under different El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions. The RAINMAN International software was used to generate SCF for El Nino, La Nina, and Neutral conditions. A decision tree analysis was applied in estimating the value of SCF information for corn farmers.

Suggested Citation

  • Gonzales, Kathrina G. & Predo, Canesio D. & de Guzman, Rosalina G. & Reyes, Celia M., 2010. "Assessing the Value of Seasonal Climate Forecasts on Farm-level Corn Production through Simulation Modeling," Philippine Journal of Development PJD 2009 Vol. XXXVI No. 1, Philippine Institute for Development Studies.
    • Handle: RePEc:phd:pjdevt:pjd_2009_vol__xxxvi_no__1-c
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    File URL: https://www.pids.gov.ph/publication/philippine-journal-of-development/assessing-the-value-of-seasonal-climate-forecasts-on-farm-level-corn-production-through-simulation-modeling
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Domingo, Sonny N. & Gonzales, Kathrina G. & Mina, Christian D. & Reyes, Celia M., 2009. "Climate Variability, Seasonal Climate Forecast, and Corn Farming in Isabela, Philippines: a Farm and Household Level Analysis," Discussion Papers DP 2009-06, Philippine Institute for Development Studies.
    2. Talpaz, Hovav & Mjelde, James W., 1988. "Crop Irrigation Scheduling Via Simulation-Based Experimentation," Western Journal of Agricultural Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 13(2), pages 1-9, December.
    3. Hill, Harvey S.J. & Mjelde, James W., 2002. "Challenges And Opportunities Provided By Seasonal Climate Forecasts: A Literature Review," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 34(3), pages 1-30, December.
    4. John W. Ritchie & G. Yahya Abawi & Sunil C. Dutta & Trevor R. Harris & Michael Bange, 2004. "Risk management strategies using seasonal climate forecasting in irrigated cotton production: a tale of stochastic dominance," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 48(1), pages 65-93, March.
    5. Ritchie, John W. & Abawi, G. Yahya & Dutta, Sunil C. & Harris, Trevor R. & Bange, Michael, 2004. "Risk management strategies using seasonal climate forecasting in irrigated cotton production: a tale of stochastic dominance," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-29.
    6. Hill, Harvey S.J. & Mjelde, James W., 2002. "Challenges and Opportunities Provided by Seasonal Climate Forecasts: A Literature Review," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 34(3), pages 603-632, December.
    7. Celia M. Reyes & Sonny N. Domingo & Christian D. Mina & Kathrina G. Gonzales, 2009. "Climate Variability, SCF, and Corn Farming in Isabela, Philippines : a Farm and Household Level Analysis," Development Economics Working Papers 22689, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
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