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Chameleonic knowledge: a study of ex ante analysis in large infrastructure policy processes

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  • Dorren, Lars
  • Van Dooren, Wouter

    (University of Antwerp)

Abstract

Using ex ante analysis to predict policy outcomes is common practice in the world of infra- structure planning. However, accounts of its uses and merits vary widely. Advisory agencies and government think tanks advocate this practice to prevent cost overruns, short-term decision-making and suboptimal choices. Academic studies on knowledge use, on the other hand, are critical of how knowledge can be used in decision making. Research has found that analyses often have no impact at all on decision outcomes or are mainly conducted to provide decision makers with the confidence to decide rather than with objective facts. In this paper, we use an ethnographic research design to understand how it is possible that the use of ex ante analysis can be depicted in such contradictory ways. We suggest that the substantive content of ex ante analysis plays a limited role in understanding its depictions and uses. Instead, it is the process of conducting an ex ante analysis itself that unfolds in such a manner that the analysis can be interpreted and used in many different and seemingly contradictory ways. In policy processes, ex ante analysis is like a chameleon, figuratively changing its appearance based on its environment.

Suggested Citation

  • Dorren, Lars & Van Dooren, Wouter, 2021. "Chameleonic knowledge: a study of ex ante analysis in large infrastructure policy processes," SocArXiv 2shq9, Center for Open Science.
    • Handle: RePEc:osf:socarx:2shq9
    DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/2shq9
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hugo Priemus & Bent Flyvbjerg & Bert van Wee (ed.), 2008. "Decision-Making on Mega-Projects," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 4112.
    2. Christina Boswell, 2009. "Knowledge, Legitimation and the Politics of Risk: The Functions of Research in Public Debates on Migration," Political Studies, Political Studies Association, vol. 57(1), pages 165-186, March.
    3. Christina Boswell, 2009. "Knowledge, Legitimation and the Politics of Risk: The Functions of Research in Public Debates on Migration," Political Studies, Political Studies Association, vol. 57, pages 165-186, March.
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