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Does Central Bank Intervention Influence the Probability of a Speculative Attack? Evidence from the EMS

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Author Info
Helmut Stix () (Oesterreichische Nationalbank)

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Abstract

This paper studies the effects of central bank intervention during the 1992- 1993 EMS crises on the D-mark/peseta and D-mark/French franc exchange rate. In particular, it is analyzed how interventions affected the probability of a speculative attack and market participants’ expectations about realignments. The findings provide evidence that interventions seem to have increased both the expected realignment rate and the probability of a speculative attack. Furthermore, there is some evidence that this effect arises for publicly known but not for secret interventions.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank) in its series Working Papers with number 80.

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Length: 52 pages
Date of creation: 04 Nov 2002
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:onb:oenbwp:80

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Postal: Oesterreichische Nationalbank, Economic Studies Division, c/o Beate Hofbauer-Berlakovich, POB 61, A-1011 Vienna, Austria
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Related research
Keywords: Foreign Exchange Intervention; European Monetary System; Markov Switching;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions

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Cited by:
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  1. Aleš Bulir, 2004. "Liberalized Markets Have More Stable Exchange Rates: Short-Run Evidence from Four Transition Countries," IMF Working Papers 04/35, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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This page was last updated on 2009-11-19.


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