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An Economic Projection to 2050: The OECD "ENV-Linkages" Model Baseline

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  • Jean Chateau
  • Cuauhtemoc Rebolledo
  • Rob Dellink

Abstract

This document describes economic baseline projections to 2050 for several world regions. It describes how socio-economic drivers are used to create a consistent projection of economic activity for the coming decades, applying the general framework of “conditional convergence”. This economic baseline is created using the ENV-Linkages model version 3. This baseline is used for modelling analysis with the ENVLinkages model as carried out for the OECD Environmental Outlook to 2050 (to be released in Spring 2012). Specific attention is given in this paper to projections for the energy system as part of the economy, to allow detailed links between economic activity and environmental pressures, including emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs). Ce document décrit les projections économiques mondiales d’un scénario de référence à l’horizon 2050. Il explique comment les différents déterminants socio-économiques sont combinés entre eux pour créer une projection cohérente de l’activité économique pour les décennies à venir, sur la base d’un cadre d’analyse fondé sur la « convergence conditionnelle ». Ce scénario économique de référence est obtenu au moyen de simulations du modèle ENV-linkages (version 3). Ce compte central est utilisé comme point de référence des exercices de simulations numériques proposées dans les « Perspective de l’Environnement de l’OCDE à l’horizon 2050 » (à paraître au printemps 2012). Une attention particulière aux projections énergétiques est entreprise, dans la mesure où celles-ci sont des éléments centraux de l’interaction entre activité économique et pression sur l’environnement, au travers notamment des émissions de gaz à effets de serre.

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File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/5kg0ndkjvfhf-en
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by OECD Publishing in its series OECD Environment Working Papers with number 41.

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Date of creation: 15 Dec 2011
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Handle: RePEc:oec:envaaa:41-en

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Related research

Keywords: climate change; general equilibrium models; long-term scenarios; scénarios de long-terme; changement climatique; modèle d'équilibre général calculable;

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