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Health Spending Projections to 2030: New results based on a revised OECD methodology

Author

Listed:
  • Luca Lorenzoni

    (OECD)

  • Alberto Marino

    (OECD)

  • David Morgan

    (OECD)

  • Chris James

    (OECD)

Abstract

To gain a better understanding of the financial sustainability of health systems, the OECD has produced a new set of health spending projections up to 2030 for all its member countries. Estimates are produced across a range of policy situations. Policy situations analysed include a “base” scenario – estimates of health spending growth in the absence of major policy changes – and a number of alternative scenarios that model the effect on health spending of policies that increase productivity or contribute to better lifestyles; or conversely, ineffective policies that contribute to additional cost pressures on health systems.

Suggested Citation

  • Luca Lorenzoni & Alberto Marino & David Morgan & Chris James, 2019. "Health Spending Projections to 2030: New results based on a revised OECD methodology," OECD Health Working Papers 110, OECD Publishing.
    • Handle: RePEc:oec:elsaad:110-en
    DOI: 10.1787/5667f23d-en
    as

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    Cited by:

    1. Himmler, Sebastian & Jonker, Marcel & van Krugten, Frédérique & Hackert, Mariska & van Exel, Job & Brouwer, Werner, 2022. "Estimating an anchored utility tariff for the well-being of older people measure (WOOP) for the Netherlands," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 301(C).
    2. Mariotti, Giuliano & Siciliani, Luigi & Rebba, Vincenzo & Coretti, Silvia & Gentilini, Maria, 2022. "Consensus among clinicians on referrals’ priority and use of digital decision-making support systems," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 126(9), pages 906-914.
    3. Pilar Gracia-de-Rentería & Hugo Ferrer-Pérez & Ana Isabel Sanjuán & George Philippidis, 2023. "Live and let live: understanding the temporal drivers and spillovers of life expectancy in Europe for public planning," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 24(3), pages 335-347, April.
    4. Stephen Rocks & Daniela Berntson & Alejandro Gil-Salmerón & Mudathira Kadu & Nieves Ehrenberg & Viktoria Stein & Apostolos Tsiachristas, 2020. "Cost and effects of integrated care: a systematic literature review and meta-analysis," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 21(8), pages 1211-1221, November.
    5. Costa-Font, Joan & Vilaplana-Prieto, Cristina, 2022. "Health shocks and housing downsizing: How persistent is ‘ageing in place’?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 204(C), pages 490-508.
    6. Keegan, Conor & Brick, Aoife & García-Rodríguez, Abián & Hill, Leonie, 2022. "Projections of workforce requirements for public acute hospitals in Ireland, 2019–2035: a regional analysis based on the hippocrates model," Research Series, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number RS147, June.
    7. Hrvoje Simovic & Maja Mihelja Zaja & Marko Primorac, 2021. "Fiscal (un)sustainability of the Croatian healthcare system: additional impact of the COVID-19 crisis," Public Sector Economics, Institute of Public Finance, vol. 45(4), pages 495-515.
    8. Conor Keegan & Aoife Brick & Edward Henry & Adele Bergin, 2022. "Projected private hospital expenditure in Ireland, 2018–2035: What role for demographics, cost, and Sláintecare?," International Journal of Health Planning and Management, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(2), pages 999-1017, March.
    9. Cylus, Jonathan & Williams, Gemma & Carrino, Ludovico & Roubal, Tomas & Barber, Sarah, 2022. "Population ageing and health financing: A method for forecasting two sides of the same coin," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 126(12), pages 1226-1232.
    10. Bharathi M. Purohit & O. P. Kharbanda & Harsh Priya, 2022. "Universal oral health coverage – Perspectives from a developing country," International Journal of Health Planning and Management, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(2), pages 610-618, March.
    11. Kettlewell, Nathan & Zhang, Yuting, 2023. "Financial Incentives and Private Health Insurance Demand on the Extensive and Intensive Margins," IZA Discussion Papers 16248, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    12. Kettlewell, Nathan & Zhang, Yuting, 2023. "Financial Incentives and Private Health Insurance Demand on the Extensive and Intensive Margins," IZA Discussion Papers 16248, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    13. Kaan Celebi & Jochen Hartwig & Anna Pauliina Sandqvist, 2024. "Baumol's Cost Disease in Acute vs. Long-term Care - Do the Differences Loom Large?," Chemnitz Economic Papers 062, Department of Economics, Chemnitz University of Technology.
    14. Domenico Lisi & Giacomo Pignataro, 2021. "A note on the trade‐off between waiting times and quality in a constrained hospital market," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(1), pages 180-185, January.
    15. Christine Lewis & Patrice Ollivaud, 2020. "Policies for Switzerland’s ageing society," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1600, OECD Publishing.
    16. Keegan, Conor & Brick, Aoife & Bergin, Adele & Wren, Maev-Ann & Whyte, Richard & Henry, Edward, 2020. "Projections of expenditure for public hospitals in Ireland, 2018–2035, based on the Hippocrates Model," Research Series, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number RS117, June.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • H51 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Government Expenditures and Health
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts

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