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The Double Dividend of Agricultural Trade Liberalization: Consistency between National Food Security and Gains from Trade

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  • Nobuhiro Hosoe

    (National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies)

Abstract

National food security is one of the main justifications used to oppose agricultural trade liberalization in Japan. Opponents of agricultural trade liberalization argue that because food supply is subject to various uncertainties, importation of cheap foods is too risky a policy. We used a Monte Carlo simulation to perform a computable general equilibrium analysis and investigated the impact of trade liberalization on national food security with random productivity shocks in four major crop markets, such as rice and wheat. Our results indicate that not only would the level of welfare be improved but also its fluctuations would be reduced by trade liberalization of rice, which shows almost perfect self-sufficiency, and by that of other crops whose supply depends heavily on importation. This double dividend would be obtained even when we focused on the cases of extremely poor crops yields.

Suggested Citation

  • Nobuhiro Hosoe, 2013. "The Double Dividend of Agricultural Trade Liberalization: Consistency between National Food Security and Gains from Trade," GRIPS Discussion Papers 13-02, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies.
    • Handle: RePEc:ngi:dpaper:13-02
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Rutten, Martine & Shutes, Lindsay & Meijerink, Gerdien, 2013. "Sit down at the ball game: How trade barriers make the world less food secure," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 1-10.
    2. Nobuhiro Hosoe & Kenji Gasawa & Hideo Hashimoto, 2010. "Textbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modelling," Palgrave Macmillan Books, Palgrave Macmillan, number 978-0-230-28165-3, September.
    3. Hertel, Thomas, 1997. "Global Trade Analysis: Modeling and applications," GTAP Books, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, number 7685, December.
    4. Tanaka, Tetsuji & Hosoe, Nobuhiro, 2011. "Does agricultural trade liberalization increase risks of supply-side uncertainty?: Effects of productivity shocks and export restrictions on welfare and food supply in Japan," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 368-377, June.
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    1. Hosoe, Nobuhiro & Akune, Yuko, 2020. "Can the Japanese agri-food producers survive under freer trade? A general equilibrium analysis with farm heterogeneity and product differentiation," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
    2. Balié, Jean & Valera, Harold Glenn, 2020. "Domestic and international impacts of the rice trade policy reform in the Philippines," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    3. Yoji Kunimitsu & Gen Sakurai & Toshichika Iizumi, 2020. "Systemic Risk in Global Agricultural Markets and Trade Liberalization under Climate Change: Synchronized Crop-Yield Change and Agricultural Price Volatility," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(24), pages 1-17, December.
    4. Nobuhiro Hosoe & Yuko Akune, 2019. "Can the Japanese Agri-food Sectors Survive by Promoting their Exports?:A General Equilibrium Analysis with Farm Heterogeneity and Product Differentiation," GRIPS Discussion Papers 19-06, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies.
    5. Valeria Borsellino & Emanuele Schimmenti & Hamid El Bilali, 2020. "Agri-Food Markets towards Sustainable Patterns," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(6), pages 1-35, March.
    6. Hosoe, Nobuhiro & Akune, Yuko, 2019. "Impact of Trade Liberalization on the Japanese Agri-food Sectors: A General Equilibrium Analysis with Farm Heterogeneity and Product Differentiation," Conference papers 333025, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • Q17 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agriculture in International Trade
    • Q18 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Policy; Food Policy; Animal Welfare Policy
    • D58 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models

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