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Logistic Curve Models of CO2 Accumulation

Author

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  • David Levinson

    (TransportLab, School of Civil Engineering, University of Sydney)

Abstract

This article explores the use of logistic-shaped diffusion curves (S-Curves) to predict the accumulation of atmospheric CO2. The research question here is whether forecasts using logistic curves are stable, that is, do they predict consistently over time with different amounts of data? Using data from the Keeling Curve, we find that the best-fit maximum atmospheric CO2 predicted varies significantly by model year when estimating models limited to data available until that point in time. More recently estimated models are more consistent, all indicate that CO2 accumulation will continue in the absence of an external shock to the system.

Suggested Citation

  • David Levinson, 2020. "Logistic Curve Models of CO2 Accumulation," Working Papers 2022-01, University of Minnesota: Nexus Research Group.
    • Handle: RePEc:nex:wpaper:logistic
    DOI: 10.32866/001c.13709
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    File URL: https://doi.org/10.32866/001c.13709
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    logistic curve; s-curve; climate change; global warming; co2; forecasting;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • R41 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Economics - - - Transportation: Demand, Supply, and Congestion; Travel Time; Safety and Accidents; Transportation Noise
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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