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Notes on the Role of TARGET in a Stage III Crisis

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Peter M. Garber

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Abstract

When Stage III of EMU begins on January 1, 1999, member countries will irrevocably lock exchange rates, and interbank payments in euros will commence. Will the ensuing respite from Stage II instabilities be permanent or only the eye of the storm? Can Stage III itself be subject to an attack that forces a realignment of the of the system? The key question for this paper is how the infrastructural arrangements designed to underpin the monetary union will emerge to determine capital flow dynamics in a crisis and accentuate potential cross-border flows. The answer lies in the details of the TARGET payment system, which can provide the inter-central bank credit necessary to fund an attack.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 6619.

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Date of creation: Jun 1998
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:6619

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References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Michael G. Spencer & Peter M. Garber, 1992. "The Dissolution of the Austro-Hungarian Empire: Lessons for Currency Reform," IMF Working Papers 92/66, International Monetary Fund.
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  1. Barry Eichengreen, 2007. "The Breakup of the Euro Area," NBER Working Papers 13393, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Simonetta Rosati & Stefania Secola, 2005. "Explaining cross-border large-value payment flows - evidence from TARGET and EURO 1 data," Working Paper Series 443, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  3. X. Freixas & B. Parigi & J-C. Rochet, 2000. "Systemic Risk, Interbank Relations and Liquidity Provision by theCentral Bank," DNB Staff Reports (discontinued) 47, Netherlands Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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