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Social Security and Saving: New Time Series Evidence

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  • Martin Feldstein

Abstract

This paper reexamines the results of my 1974 paper on Social Security and saving with the help of an additional twenty-one years of data. The estimates presented here reconfirm that each dollar of Social Security wealth (SSW) reduces private saving by between two and three cents. The parameter estimates for the postwar period and for the entire sample since 1930 are very similar. The correction of the error in the original SSW series between 1958 and 1971 therefore does not significantly affect the original results. The estimated effect of SSW is robust with respect to the addition of a variety of variables that have been suggested in previous critiques of the original study. In the aggregate, the parameter values imply that the Social Security program currently reduces overall private saving by nearly 60 percent.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 5054.

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Date of creation: Mar 1995
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:5054

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  1. Feldstein, Martin S, 1982. "Social Security and Private Saving: Reply," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(3), pages 630-42, June.
  2. Feldstein, Martin S, 1974. "Social Security, Induced Retirement, and Aggregate Capital Accumulation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 82(5), pages 905-26, Sept./Oct.
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As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
  1. Does welfare sap the will to save?
    by Peter Whiteford in Club Troppo on 2009-03-20 02:37:17
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Cited by:
  1. Fölster, Stefan & Henrekson, Magnus, 1997. "Growth and the Public Sector: A Critique of the Critics," Working Paper Series 492, Research Institute of Industrial Economics, revised 10 Jun 1998.
  2. Kapteyn, Arie & Alessie, Rob & Lusardi, Annamaria, 2005. "Explaining the wealth holdings of different cohorts: Productivity growth and Social Security," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(5), pages 1361-1391, July.
  3. Kivilcim Metin Ozcan & Asli Gunay & Seda Ertac, 2003. "Determinants of private savings behaviour in Turkey," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 35(12), pages 1405-1416.
  4. Groezen, B.J.A.M. van & Leers, T., 2000. "The Effects of Asymmetric Demographic Shocks with Perfect Capital Mobility," Discussion Paper 2000-88, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  5. Mariangela Bonasia & Oreste Napolitano, 2006. "The Impact of Privatisation of Pension System on National Saving: The Case of Australia and Iceland," Discussion Papers 3_2006, D.E.S. (Department of Economic Studies), University of Naples "Parthenope", Italy.
  6. Feldstein, Martin, 1996. "The Missing Piece in Policy Analysis: Social Security Reform," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(2), pages 1-14, May.
  7. Roman Arjona, . "Gradually Capitalizing the Spanish Retirement Pension System," Studies on the Spanish Economy 81, FEDEA.
  8. Smetters, Kent, 1999. "Ricardian equivalence: long-run Leviathan," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(3), pages 395-421, September.
  9. Uhlig, Harald & Yanagawa, Noriyuki, 1996. "Increasing the capital income tax may lead to faster growth," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(8), pages 1521-1540, November.
  10. James Obben & Monique Waayer, 2011. "New Zealand's old-age pension scheme and household saving," International Journal of Social Economics, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 38(9), pages 767-788, August.
  11. Dauriol, Julie, 2005. "Les comportements d’accumulation patrimoniale des ménages français : existe-t-il un effet de génération ?," Open Access publications from Université Paris-Dauphine urn:hdl:123456789/4094, Université Paris-Dauphine.
  12. Isaac Ehrlich & Jinyoung Kim, 2005. "Social Security, Demographic Trends, and Economic Growth: Theory and Evidence from the International Experience," NBER Working Papers 11121, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Shinichi Nishiyama & Kent Smetters, 2002. "Ricardian Equivalence with Incomplete Household Risk Sharing," NBER Working Papers 8851, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Richard Disney, 2005. "Household Saving Rates and the Design of Social Security Programmes: Evidence from a Country Panel," CESifo Working Paper Series 1541, CESifo Group Munich.
  15. Chien-Chiang Lee & Chun-Ping Chang, 2006. "Social security expenditure and GDP in OECD countries: A cointegrated panel analysis," International Economic Journal, Korean International Economic Association, vol. 20(3), pages 303-320.

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