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Social Security and Saving: New Time Series Evidence

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  • Martin Feldstein

Abstract

This paper reexamines the results of my 1974 paper on Social Security and saving with the help of an additional twenty-one years of data. The estimates presented here reconfirm that each dollar of Social Security wealth (SSW) reduces private saving by between two and three cents. The parameter estimates for the postwar period and for the entire sample since 1930 are very similar. The correction of the error in the original SSW series between 1958 and 1971 therefore does not significantly affect the original results. The estimated effect of SSW is robust with respect to the addition of a variety of variables that have been suggested in previous critiques of the original study. In the aggregate, the parameter values imply that the Social Security program currently reduces overall private saving by nearly 60 percent.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 5054.

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Date of creation: Mar 1995
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:5054

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  1. Feldstein, Martin S, 1974. "Social Security, Induced Retirement, and Aggregate Capital Accumulation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 82(5), pages 905-26, Sept./Oct.
  2. Feldstein, Martin S, 1982. "Social Security and Private Saving: Reply," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(3), pages 630-42, June.
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As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
  1. Does welfare sap the will to save?
    by Peter Whiteford in Club Troppo on 2009-03-20 02:37:17
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Cited by:
  1. Arie Kapteyn & Rob Alessie & Annamaria Lusardi, 1999. "Explaining the Wealth Holdings of Different Cohorts: Productivity Growth and Social Security," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 99-069/3, Tinbergen Institute.
  2. Folster, Stefan & Henrekson, Magnus, 1999. "Growth and the public sector: a critique of the critics," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 337-358, June.
  3. E.P. Davis, 1996. "The Role of Institutional Investors in the Evolution of Financial Structure and Behaviour," FMG Special Papers sp89, Financial Markets Group.
  4. Richard Disney, 2005. "Household Saving Rates and the Design of Social Security Programmes: Evidence from a Country Panel," CESifo Working Paper Series 1541, CESifo Group Munich.
  5. E Philip Davis, 2005. "Challenges Posed by Ageing to Financial and Monetary Stability*," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 30(4), pages 542-564, October.
  6. Isaac Ehrlich & Jinyoung Kim, 2005. "Social Security, Demographic Trends, and Economic Growth: Theory and Evidence from the International Experience," NBER Working Papers 11121, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Kivilcim Metin Ozcan & Asli Gunay & Seda Ertac, 2003. "Determinants of private savings behaviour in Turkey," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(12), pages 1405-1416.
  8. Feldstein, Martin, 1996. "The Missing Piece in Policy Analysis: Social Security Reform," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(2), pages 1-14, May.
  9. Chien-Chiang Lee & Chun-Ping Chang, 2006. "Social security expenditure and GDP in OECD countries: A cointegrated panel analysis," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(3), pages 303-320.
  10. Dauriol, Julie, 2005. "Les comportements d’accumulation patrimoniale des ménages français : existe-t-il un effet de génération ?," Economics Papers from University Paris Dauphine 123456789/4094, Paris Dauphine University.
  11. Mariangela Bonasia & Oreste Napolitano, 2006. "The Impact of Privatisation of Pension System on National Saving: The Case of Australia and Iceland," Discussion Papers 3_2006, D.E.S. (Department of Economic Studies), University of Naples "Parthenope", Italy.
  12. Roman Arjona, . "Gradually Capitalizing the Spanish Retirement Pension System," Studies on the Spanish Economy 81, FEDEA.
  13. James Obben & Monique Waayer, 2011. "New Zealand's old-age pension scheme and household saving," International Journal of Social Economics, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 38(9), pages 767-788, August.
  14. Shinichi Nishiyama & Kent Smetters, 2002. "Ricardian Equivalence with Incomplete Household Risk Sharing," NBER Working Papers 8851, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Uhlig, Harald & Yanagawa, Noriyuki, 1996. "Increasing the capital income tax may lead to faster growth," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(8), pages 1521-1540, November.
  16. Groezen, B.J.A.M. van & Leers, T., 2000. "The Effects of Asymmetric Demographic Shocks with Perfect Capital Mobility," Discussion Paper 2000-88, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  17. Smetters, Kent, 1999. "Ricardian equivalence: long-run Leviathan," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(3), pages 395-421, September.

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