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The Draft Lottery and Voluntary Enlistment in the Vietnam Era

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Author Info
Joshua D. Angrist

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Abstract

A combination of voluntary enlistment, armed forces eligibility criteria, and the failure of draftees to avoid conscription jointly determined the racial composition of the Vietnam-era armed forces. Administrative data show that men with draft lottery numbers that put them at high risk of conscription are overrepresented among men who voluntarily enlisted in the military, but that the effect of the lottery on enlistment is stronger for whites than for nonwhites. Minimum Chi-Square estimates of enlistment models for the 1971 draft lottery suggest that nonwhites were more likely than whites to prefer enlistment to a civilian career. This finding appears to explain racial differences in the effect of the lottery on enlistment. Contrary to the findings of a recent congressional study, the Vietnam-era estimates presented here suggest that conscription of a relatively small number of whites and nonwhites in a manner proportional to their prevalence in the population might substantially reduce nonwhite representation in the armed forces.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 3514.

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Date of creation: Nov 1990
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:3514

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References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Warner, John T & Goldberg, Matthew S, 1984. "The Influence of Non-Pecuniary Factors on Labor Supply: The Case of Navy Enlisted Personnel," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 66(1), pages 26-35, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  1. Thomas Lemieux & David Card, 1998. "Education, Earnings, and the "Canadian G.I. Bill"," NBER Working Papers 6718, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. John T. Warner & Beth J. Asch, 2001. "The Record and Prospects of the All-Volunteer Military in the United States," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(2), pages 169-192, Spring. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Joshua D. Angrist & Alan B. Krueger, 1992. "Estimating the Payoff to Schooling Using the Vietnam-Era Draft Lottery," NBER Working Papers 4067, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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