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Estimating the Payoff to Schooling Using the Vietnam-Era Draft Lottery

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Author Info
Joshua D. Angrist
Alan B. Krueger

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Abstract

Between 1970 and 1973 priority for military service was randomly assigned to draft-age men in a series of lotteries. Many men who were at risk of being drafted managed to avoid military service by enrolling in school and obtaining an educational deferment This paper uses the draft lottery as a natural experiment to estimate the return to education and the veteran premium. Estimates are based on special extracts of the Current Population Survey for 1979and 1981-85. The results suggest that an extra year of schooling acquired in response to the lottery is associated with6.6 percent higher weekly earnings. This figure is about 10 percent higher than the OLS estimate of the return to education in this sample, which suggests there is omitted-variable bias in conventional estimates of the return to education. Our findings are robust to a variety of assumptions about the effect of veteran status on earnings.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 4067.

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Date of creation: May 1992
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:4067

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Alan Krueger & Orley Ashenfelter, 1992. "Estimates of the Economic Return to Schooling from a New Sample of Twins," NBER Working Papers 4143, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Willis, Robert J & Rosen, Sherwin, 1979. "Education and Self-Selection," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(5), pages S7-36, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. McKinley L. Blackburn & David Neumark, 1991. "Omitted-Ability Bias and the Increase in the Return to Schooling," NBER Working Papers 3693, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Angrist, Joshua D & Krueger, Alan B, 1991. "Does Compulsory School Attendance Affect Schooling and Earnings?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 106(4), pages 979-1014, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Angrist, Joshua D, 1990. "Lifetime Earnings and the Vietnam Era Draft Lottery: Evidence from Social Security Administrative Records," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(3), pages 313-36, June.
    Other versions:
  6. De Tray, Dennis, 1982. "Veteran Status as a Screening Device," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 72(1), pages 133-42, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. repec:fth:prinin:304 is not listed on IDEAS
  8. Hungerford, Thomas & Solon, Gary, 1987. "Sheepskin Effects in the Returns to Education," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 69(1), pages 175-77, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Angrist, Joshua & Krueger, Alan B, 1994. "Why Do World War II Veterans Earn More Than Nonveterans?," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 12(1), pages 74-97, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Jon R. Crane & David A. Wise, 1987. "Military Service and Civilian Earnings of Youths," NBER Chapters, in: Public Sector Payrolls, pages 119-146 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
  11. Weiss, Yoram, 1971. "Ability and the Investment in Schooling: A Theoretical Note on J. Mincer's 'Distribution of Labor Income'," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 9(2), pages 459-61, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Griliches, Zvi, 1977. "Estimating the Returns to Schooling: Some Econometric Problems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 45(1), pages 1-22, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Joshua D. Angrist, 1990. "The Draft Lottery and Voluntary Enlistment in the Vietnam Era," NBER Working Papers 3514, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. David Card, 1994. "Earnings, Schooling, and Ability Revisited," NBER Working Papers 4832, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Maluccio, John A., 1998. "Endogeneity of schooling in the wage function," FCND discussion papers 54, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). [Downloadable!]
  3. Belzil, Christian & Hansen, Jörgen, 1999. "Subjective Discount Rates, Intergenerational Transfers and the Return to Schooling," IZA Discussion Papers 60, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
  4. Anupam Jena & Casey Mulligan & Tomas J. Philipson & Eric Sun, 2008. "The Value of Life in General Equilibrium," NBER Working Papers 14157, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Orbeta, Aniceto Jr. C., 2002. "Education, Labor Market, and Development: A Review of the Trends and Issues in the Philippines for the Past 25 Years," Discussion Papers DP 2002-19, Philippine Institute for Development Studies. [Downloadable!]
  6. Thomas J. Kane & Cecilia E. Rouse, 1993. "Labor Market Returns to Two- and Four-Year Colleges: Is a Credit a Credit and Do Degrees Matter?," NBER Working Papers 4268, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. David Card, 2000. "Estimating the Return to Schooling: Progress on Some Persistent Econometric Problems," NBER Working Papers 7769, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  8. Alan Krueger & Orley Ashenfelter, 1992. "Estimates of the Economic Return to Schooling from a New Sample of Twins," NBER Working Papers 4143, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  9. J.D. Angrist & Guido W. Imbens & D.B. Rubin, 1993. "Identification of Causal Effects Using Instrumental Variables," NBER Technical Working Papers 0136, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. de Walque, Damien, 2004. "Education, information, and smoking decisions : evidence from smoking histories, 1940-2000," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3362, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  11. William N. Evans & Edward Montgomery, 1994. "Education and Health: Where There's Smoke There's an Instrument," NBER Working Papers 4949, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Piero Cipollone & Alfonso Rosolia, 2006. "Social Interactions in High School: Lessons from an Earthquake," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 596, Bank of Italy, Economic Research Department. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  13. Lorraine Dearden & Barbara Sianesi, 2001. "Estimating the Returns to Education: Models, Methods and Results," CEE Discussion Papers 0016, Centre for the Economics of Education, LSE. [Downloadable!]
  14. Thomas J. Kane & Cecilia Rouse, 1993. "Labor Market Returns to Two- And Four-Year College: Is A Credit a Credit And Do Degrees Matter?," Working Papers 690, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Industrial Relations Section.. [Downloadable!]
  15. Richard Blundell & Lorraine Dearden & Barbara Sianesi, 2003. "Evaluating the impact of education on earnings in the UK: Models, methods and results from the NCDS," IFS Working Papers W03/20, Institute for Fiscal Studies. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  16. Colm Harmon & Hessel Oosterbeek, 2000. "The Returns to Education: A Review of Evidence, Issues and Deficiencies in the Literature," CEE Discussion Papers 0005, Centre for the Economics of Education, LSE. [Downloadable!]
  17. David Card & Thomas Lemieux, 2001. "Going to College to Avoid the Draft: The Unintended Legacy of the Vietnam War," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 97-102, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Gavan Conlon, 2001. "The differential in earnings premia between academically and vocationally trained males in the United Kingdom," CEE Discussion Papers 0011, Centre for the Economics of Education, LSE. [Downloadable!]
  19. repec:fth:prinin:311 is not listed on IDEAS
  20. Costas Megir & Martin Palme, 2001. "The effect of a social experiment in education," CEE Discussion Papers 0014, Centre for the Economics of Education, LSE. [Downloadable!]
  21. Joshua D. Angrist & Stacey H. Chen, 2007. "Long-term consequences of vietnam-era conscription: schooling, experience, and earnings," NBER Working Papers 13411, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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