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An Explanation of the Behavior of Personal Savings in the United States in Recent Years

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  • Eytan Sheshinski
  • Vito Tanzi

Abstract

A sharp increase in the real interest rates in the U.S. in the 1980s was expected to induce a higher personal saving rate. Actually, between 1981 and 1983 the personal saving rate fell from 7.5 percent to 5.4 percent and for the 1985-1988 period it had averaged only 4 percent even though real interest rates have remained high. We argue that one possible explanation for this negative relation between interest rates and the personal saving rate is the large fraction of wealth, especially financial wealth, held by persons over 65 years old (this group has received more than 50 percent of all interest income in the U.S. during this period). Life cycle theory suggests, as we demonstrate, that the wealth effect created by an increase in the rate of interest reduces the savings of old persons and raises savings of the young and hence the effect on aggregate savings depends on the age distribution in the population.

Suggested Citation

  • Eytan Sheshinski & Vito Tanzi, 1989. "An Explanation of the Behavior of Personal Savings in the United States in Recent Years," NBER Working Papers 3040, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:3040
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Boskin, Michael J, 1978. "Taxation, Saving, and the Rate of Interest," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(2), pages 3-27, April.
    2. B. Douglas Bernheim, 1987. "Ricardian Equivalence: An Evaluation of Theory and Evidence," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1987, Volume 2, pages 263-316, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Friend, Irwin & Hasbrouck, Joel, 1983. "Saving and After-Tax Rates of Return," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 65(4), pages 537-543, November.
    4. Hurd, Michael D, 1987. "Savings of the Elderly and Desired Bequests," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(3), pages 298-312, June.
    5. Michael J. Boskin, 1978. "Taxation, Saving, and the Rate of Interest," NBER Chapters, in: Research in Taxation, pages 3-27, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Cited by:

    1. Koskela, Erkki & Virén, Matti, 1992. "Inflation, capital markets and household saving in Nordic countries," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 4/1992, Bank of Finland.
    2. Ndanshau, Michael O. A. & Kilindo, Ali A. L., 2012. "Interest Rates and Financial Savings in Tanzania: 1967 - 2010," MPRA Paper 44387, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Jan 2013.
    3. repec:zbw:bofrdp:1992_004 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Starck, Christian, 1990. "Interest rate elasticity of aggregate consumption : a time varying parameter approach," Research Discussion Papers 28/1990, Bank of Finland.
    5. repec:zbw:bofrdp:1990_028 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Christian C. Starck, 1991. "The interest rate elasticity of aggregate consumption : a time varying parameter approach," Finnish Economic Papers, Finnish Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 142-153, Autumn.
    7. Patrick Artus, 1992. "Taux d'intérêt réels élevés et financement de l'économie," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 43(4), pages 671-684.
    8. Starck, Christian, 1990. "The Interest rate elasticity of aggregate consumption: a time varying parameter approach," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 28/1990, Bank of Finland.
    9. Koskela, Erkki & Virén, Matti, 1992. "Inflation, capital markets and household saving in Nordic countries," Research Discussion Papers 4/1992, Bank of Finland.
    10. Koskela, Erkki & Virén, Matti, 1991. "Household saving, interest rates, inflation and taxation: some cross-country evidence," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 10/1991, Bank of Finland.

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