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Why Have College Completion Rates Increased? An Analysis of Rising Grades

Author

Listed:
  • Jeffrey T. Denning
  • Eric R. Eide
  • Kevin Mumford
  • Richard W. Patterson
  • Merrill Warnick

Abstract

College completion rates declined from the 1970s to the 1990s. We document that this trend has reversed--since the 1990s, college completion rates have increased. We investigate the reasons for the increase in college graduation rates. Collectively, student characteristics, institutional resources, and institution attended do not explain much of the change. However, we show that grade inflation can explain much of the change in graduation rates. We show that GPA is a strong predictor of graduation rates and that GPAs have been rising since the 1990s. We also find that in national survey data and rich administrative data from 9 large public universities increases in college GPAs cannot be explained by student demographics, preparation, and school factors. Further, we find that at a public liberal arts college, grades have increased over time conditional on final exam performance.

Suggested Citation

  • Jeffrey T. Denning & Eric R. Eide & Kevin Mumford & Richard W. Patterson & Merrill Warnick, 2021. "Why Have College Completion Rates Increased? An Analysis of Rising Grades," NBER Working Papers 28710, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:28710
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    Cited by:

    1. McGue, Matt & Anderson, Elise L. & Willoughby, Emily & Giannelis, Alexandros & Iacono, William G. & Lee, James J., 2022. "Not by g alone: The benefits of a college education among individuals with low levels of general cognitive ability," Intelligence, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    2. Fazlul, Ishtiaque & Jones, Todd & Smith, Jonathan, 2021. "College Credit on the Table? Advanced Placement Course and Exam Taking," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • I20 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - General
    • I21 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Analysis of Education
    • I23 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Higher Education; Research Institutions

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