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From Immigrants to Robots: The Changing Locus of Substitutes for Workers

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  • George J. Borjas
  • Richard B. Freeman

Abstract

Increased use of robots has roused concern about how robots and other new technologies change the world of work. Using numbers of robots shipped to primarily manufacturing industries as a supply shock to an industry labor market, we estimate that an additional robot reduces employment and wages in an industry by roughly as much as an additional 2 to 3 workers and by 3 to 4 workers in particular groups, which far exceed estimated effects of an additional immigrant on employment and wages. While the growth of robots in the 1996-2016 period of our data was too modest to be a major determinant of wages and employment, the estimated coefficients suggest that continued exponential growth of robots could disrupt job markets in the foreseeable future and thus merit attention from labor analysts.

Suggested Citation

  • George J. Borjas & Richard B. Freeman, 2019. "From Immigrants to Robots: The Changing Locus of Substitutes for Workers," NBER Working Papers 25438, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:25438
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    Cited by:

    1. Guendalina Anzolin, 2021. "Automation and its Employment Effects: A Literature Review of Automotive and Garment Sectors," JRC Working Papers on Labour, Education and Technology 2021-16, Joint Research Centre.
    2. Nikolova, Milena & Cnossen, Femke & Nikolaev. Boris, 2022. "Robots, Meaning, and Self-Determination," GLO Discussion Paper Series 1191, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    3. Antón, José-Ignacio & Fernández-Macías, Enrique & Winter-Ebmer, Rudolf, 2020. "Does Robotization Affect Job Quality? Evidence from European Regional Labour Markets," IZA Discussion Papers 13975, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    4. Dario Guarascio & Alessandro Piccirillo & Jelena Reljic, 2024. "Will robot replace workers? Assessing the impact of robots on employment and wages with meta-analysis," LEM Papers Series 2024/03, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    5. Davide Dottori, 2021. "Robots and employment: evidence from Italy," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 38(2), pages 739-795, July.
    6. Fierro, Luca Eduardo & Caiani, Alessandro & Russo, Alberto, 2022. "Automation, Job Polarisation, and Structural Change," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 200(C), pages 499-535.
    7. José-Ignacio Antón & David Klenert & Enrique Fernández-Macías & Maria Cesira Urzì Brancati & Georgios Alaveras, 2022. "The labour market impact of robotisation in Europe," European Journal of Industrial Relations, , vol. 28(3), pages 317-339, September.
    8. Genz, Sabrina & Schnabel, Claus, 2021. "Digging into the digital divide: Workers' exposure to digitalization and its consequences for individual employment," Discussion Papers 118, Friedrich-Alexander University Erlangen-Nuremberg, Chair of Labour and Regional Economics.
    9. Alguacil Marí, María Teresa & Lo Turco, Alessia & Martínez-Zarzoso, Inmaculada, 2020. "What is so special about robots and trade?," University of Göttingen Working Papers in Economics 410, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
    10. MORIKAWA Masayuki, 2020. "Heterogeneous Relationships between Automation Technologies and Skilled Labor: Evidence from a Firm Survey," Discussion papers 20004, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    11. Gregor Wolbring, 2022. "Auditing the ‘Social’ of Quantum Technologies: A Scoping Review," Societies, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-38, March.
    12. David Klenert & Enrique Fernández-Macías & José-Ignacio Antón, 2023. "Do robots really destroy jobs? Evidence from Europe," Economic and Industrial Democracy, Department of Economic History, Uppsala University, Sweden, vol. 44(1), pages 280-316, February.
    13. Klump, Rainer & Jurkat, Anne & Schneider, Florian, 2021. "Tracking the rise of robots: A survey of the IFR database and its applications," MPRA Paper 110390, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Helfen, Markus & Wirth, Carsten, 2020. "Management von Arbeit in pluralen Netzwerkorganisationen: Trends, Deutungen und Handlungsoptionen," Working Paper Forschungsförderung 185, Hans-Böckler-Stiftung, Düsseldorf.
    15. Filippi, Emilia & Bannò, Mariasole & Trento, Sandro, 2023. "Automation technologies and their impact on employment: A review, synthesis and future research agenda," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    16. Alguacil, Maite & Lo Turco, Alessia & Martínez-Zarzoso, Inmaculada, 2022. "Robot adoption and export performance: Firm-level evidence from Spain," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    17. Simerta Gill & Gregor Wolbring, 2022. "Auditing the ‘Social’ Using Conventions, Declarations, and Goal Setting Documents: A Scoping Review," Societies, MDPI, vol. 12(6), pages 1-100, October.
    18. Holzer, Harry J., 2019. "The US Labor Market in 2050: Supply, Demand and Policies to Improve Outcomes," IZA Policy Papers 148, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    19. Kerstin Hotte & Melline Somers & Angelos Theodorakopoulos, 2022. "Technology and jobs: A systematic literature review," Papers 2204.01296, arXiv.org.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • J20 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - General
    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes

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