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Crises and Growth: A Latin American Perspective

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  • Sebastian Edwards

Abstract

In this paper I use historical data to analyze the relationship between crises and growth in Latin America. I calculate by how much the region's GDP per capita has been reduced as a consequence of the recurrence of external crises. I also analyze the determinants of major balance of payments crises. The main conclusion is that it is unlikely that Latin America will, on average, experience a major improvement in long run growth in the future. It is possible that some countries will make progress in catching up with the advanced nations. This, however, will not be the norm; most Latin American countries are likely to fall further behind in relation to the Asian countries and other emerging nations. Not everything, however, is grim. My analysis also suggests that fewer Latin America countries will be subject to the type of catastrophic crises that affected the region in the past. Latin America's future will be one of "No crises and modest growth."

Suggested Citation

  • Sebastian Edwards, 2007. "Crises and Growth: A Latin American Perspective," NBER Working Papers 13019, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:13019
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    1. Leandro Prados de la Escosura, 2007. "When Did Latin America Fall Behind?," NBER Chapters, in: The Decline of Latin American Economies: Growth, Institutions, and Crises, pages 15-58, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • N26 - Economic History - - Financial Markets and Institutions - - - Latin America; Caribbean
    • O4 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity

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