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International Capital Movements Under Uncertainty

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Gene M. Grossman
Assaf Razin

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Abstract

In this paper, we analyze the determinants of international movements of physical capital in a model with uncertainty and international trade in goods and securities.In our model, the world allocation of capital is governed, to some extent, by the asset preferences of risk averse consumer-investors. In a one-good variant in the spirit of the MacDougall model, we find that relative factor abundance, relative labor force size and relative production riskiness have separate but interrelated influences on the direction of equilibrium capital movements.These same factors remain important in a two-good version with Heckscher-Ohlin production structure. In this case, the direction of physical capital flow is determinate (unlike in a world of certaint and may hinge on the identity of the factor which is used intensively in the industry with random technology.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 1075.

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Date of creation: Oct 1984
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:1075

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  1. Batra, Raveendra N, 1975. "Production Uncertainty and the Heckscher-Ohlin Theorem," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(2), pages 259-68, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Anderson, James E., 1981. "The Heckscher-Ohlin and Travis-Vanek theorems under uncertainty," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 239-247, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  1. Jordi Pons Novell & Daniel A. Tirado Fabregat, . "Especialización productiva y asimetrías en las fluctuaciones económicas en las regiones europeas," Working Papers 2002-23, FEDEA. [Downloadable!]
  2. Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan & Bent E. Sørensen & Oved Yosha, 2003. "Risk Sharing and Industrial Specialization: Regional and International Evidence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(3), pages 903-918, June. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan & Bent E. Sorensen & Oved Yosha, 2004. "Asymmetric Shocks and Risk Sharing in a Monetary Union: Updated Evidence and Policy Implications for Europe," Working Papers 2004-05, Department of Economics, University of Houston. [Downloadable!]
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  4. John T. Cuddington & Hong Liang & Shihua Lu, 1996. "Uncertainty, Trade, and Capital Flows in Sub-Saharan Africa," International Finance 9602002, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  5. Jordi Pons-Novell & Daniel Tirado-Fabregat, 2006. "Specialization and asymmetries in macroeconomic fluctuations: Evidence for the European regions," Regional Studies, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 40(7), pages 695-706, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Lars E.O. Svensson, 1989. "Trade in Risky Assets," NBER Working Papers 2403, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Carol L. Osler, 1987. "Factor Prices and Welfare Under Integrated Capital Markets," NBER Working Papers 2447, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Mario Crucini & Prasad Bidarkota, 1997. "Commodity Prices and the Terms of Trade," Working Papers 98-01, Ohio State University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Pierre-Guillaume Méon & Laurent Weill, 2003. "A View of the European Union as an Evolving Country Portfolio," Working Papers of LaRGE (Laboratoire de Recherche en Gestion et Economie) 2003-04, Laboratoire de Recherche en Gestion et Economie, Université de Strasbourg (France). [Downloadable!]
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