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Y A-T-Il Des Biais Systematiques Dans Les Annonces Budgetaires Canadiennes?

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Author Info

  • DAVID, J-F.
  • GHYSELS, E.

Abstract

Every year the Canadian government makes up a budget for the forthcoming fiscal year. During the budget process, projections are made of expenditures and receipts contingent upon predictions of key macroeconomic variables. Naturally, one expects that the budget deficit or surplus actually realized will differ from what was initially announced. Neither of the two major protagonists in the budget decision-making process, namely the Legislative and Executive Branches of government, may have an interest in using truthful projections, however. The purpose of the paper is to find empirical regularities. It is found that (1) the difference between projected and realized budgets is substantial; and (2) that the differences are systematically related to publicly available information at the time of the budget announcement. The publicly available information contains key macroeconomic variables related to the electoral and legislative process. It is shown that the biases are fairly predictable at the time budget projections are announced.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ in its series Cahiers de recherche with number 8912.

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Length: 18 pages
Date of creation: 1989
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:mtl:montec:8912

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Keywords: politique budgetaire ; analyse statistique;

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References

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  1. David, J-F. & Ghysels, E., 1989. "Y A-T-Il Des Biais Systematiques Dans Les Annonces Budgetaires Canadiennes?," Cahiers de recherche 8912, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
  2. Ghysels, E., 1987. "The Political Economy of the Budget and Efficient Information Processing," Cahiers de recherche 8733, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
  3. Dufour, J.M., 1983. "Unbiasedness of Predictions From Estimated Vector Autoregressions," Cahiers de recherche 8330, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
  4. Whitney K. Newey & Kenneth D. West, 1986. "A Simple, Positive Semi-Definite, Heteroskedasticity and AutocorrelationConsistent Covariance Matrix," NBER Technical Working Papers 0055, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
  6. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-54, July.
  7. Phillips, Peter C. B., 1979. "The sampling distribution of forecasts from a first-order autoregression," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 241-261, February.
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Cited by:
  1. David, J-F. & Ghysels, E., 1989. "Y A-T-Il Des Biais Systematiques Dans Les Annonces Budgetaires Canadiennes?," Cahiers de recherche 8912, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.

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