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Y a-t-il des biais systematiques dans les annonces budgetaires canadiennes? (With English summary.)

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  • Jean Francois David
  • Eric Ghysels

Abstract

Every year the Canadian government makes up a budget for the forthcoming fiscal year. During the budget process, projections are made of expenditures and receipts contingent upon predictions of key macroeconomic variables. Naturally, one expects that the budget deficit or surplus actually realized will differ from what was initially announced. Neither of the two major protagonists in the budget decision-making process, namely the Legislative and Executive Branches of government, may have an interest in using truthful projections, however. The purpose of the paper is to find empirical regularities. It is found that (1) the difference between projected and realized budgets is substantial; and (2) that the differences are systematically related to publicly available information at the time of the budget announcement. The publicly available information contains key macroeconomic variables related to the electoral and legislative process. It is shown that the biases are fairly predictable at the time budget projections are announced.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by University of Toronto Press in its journal Canadian Public Policy.

Volume (Year): 15 (1989)
Issue (Month): 3 (September)
Pages: 313-321

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Handle: RePEc:cpp:issued:v:15:y:1989:i:3:p:313-321

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  1. Jean Francois David & Eric Ghysels, 1989. "Y a-t-il des biais systematiques dans les annonces budgetaires canadiennes? (With English summary.)," Canadian Public Policy, University of Toronto Press, vol. 15(3), pages 313-321, September.
  2. Phillips, Peter C. B., 1979. "The sampling distribution of forecasts from a first-order autoregression," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 241-261, February.
  3. Whitney K. Newey & Kenneth D. West, 1986. "A Simple, Positive Semi-Definite, Heteroskedasticity and AutocorrelationConsistent Covariance Matrix," NBER Technical Working Papers 0055, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Ghysels, E., 1987. "The Political Economy of the Budget and Efficient Information Processing," Cahiers de recherche 8733, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
  5. Dufour, J.M., 1983. "Unbiasedness of Predictions From Estimated Vector Autoregressions," Cahiers de recherche 8330, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
  6. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-54, July.
  7. David, J.F. & Ghysels, E., 1989. "Y A-T-Il des Biais Systematiques Dans les Annonces Budgetaires Canadiennes?," Cahiers de recherche 8912, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
  8. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
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Cited by:
  1. Jean Francois David & Eric Ghysels, 1989. "Y a-t-il des biais systematiques dans les annonces budgetaires canadiennes? (With English summary.)," Canadian Public Policy, University of Toronto Press, vol. 15(3), pages 313-321, September.

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