Effet peso : présentation théorique et application à la politique monétaire
AbstractThis article deals with the theoretical implications implied by the presence of Peso effects in expectations. After presenting the Peso effect as the probability of occurence of an unusual event though important enough to be taken into account in the forecasts, we present a model able to isolate the systematic expectation error. The appearance of this error comes especially from imperfect information concerning the future states as well as the current regime. This uncertainty about the current regime leads the agents to implement a learning process for the model. In the last part of this article, we show how a credible central bank can limit the occurrence of Peso effects.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne in its series Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne with number v07012.
Length: 26 pages
Date of creation: Mar 2007
Date of revision:
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Peso effect; efficient markets; rational expectations.;
Other versions of this item:
- Nicolas Million, 2007. "Effet peso : présentation théorique et application à la politique monétaire," UniversitÃ© Paris1 PanthÃ©on-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00144659, HAL.
- E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
- C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models &bull Diffusion Processes
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2007-04-28 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2007-04-28 (Central Banking)
- NEP-MAC-2007-04-28 (Macroeconomics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Fourgeaud, Claude & Gourieroux, Christian & Pradel, Jacqueline, 1986.
"Learning Procedures and Convergence to Rationality,"
Econometric Society, vol. 54(4), pages 845-68, July.
- Martin D.D. Evans, 1995. "Peso Problems: Their Theoretical and Empirical Implications," Working Papers 95-05, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
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