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Expectations and Household Spending

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  • Michael D. Hurd

    (RAND)

  • Susann Rohwedder

    (RAND)

Abstract

We estimate the effect of expectations about unemployment on household spending using high-frequency panel data from the RAND American Life Panel. The data were collected during the Great Recession and its aftermath, a time of great economic uncertainty. We use monthly data both on total household spending and on subcategories of spending. We find that changes in total spending made in response to changes in the chances of becoming unemployed are difficult to detect empirically. This is because many categories of spending, such as rent, utilities, and car payments, tend to be fixed from month to month. Nevertheless, when studying subcategories of spending that are more easily adjusted in the short-term we find significant effects. For example, in response to an increase from 0 to 1 in the probability of becoming unemployed, we estimate that households reduce spending on clothing by about 14%, dining out and other entertainment by 11%, and personal care by 12%.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael D. Hurd & Susann Rohwedder, 2013. "Expectations and Household Spending," Working Papers wp300, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center.
    • Handle: RePEc:mrr:papers:wp300
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Melvin Stephens, 2001. "The Long-Run Consumption Effects Of Earnings Shocks," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 83(1), pages 28-36, February.
    2. Michael D. Hurd & Daniel McFadden & Harish Chand & Li Gan & Angela Menill & Michael Roberts, 1998. "Consumption and Savings Balances of the Elderly: Experimental Evidence on Survey Response Bias," NBER Chapters, in: Frontiers in the Economics of Aging, pages 353-392, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Cited by:

    1. Lena Dräger, 2016. "Are Consumers Planning Consumption According to an Euler Equation?," Working Papers 1621, Gutenberg School of Management and Economics, Johannes Gutenberg-Universität Mainz.
    2. Lena Dräger & Giang Nghiem, 2021. "Are Consumers' Spending Decisions in Line with A Euler Equation?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 103(3), pages 580-596, July.
    3. Keaton S. Miller & Wesley W. Wilson & Nicholas G. Wood, 2020. "Environmentalism, Stimulus, And Inequality Reduction Through Industrial Policy: Did Cash For Clunkers Achieve The Trifecta?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 58(3), pages 1109-1128, July.
    4. Federica Teppa, 2014. "Consumption behaviour and financial crisis in the Netherlands," DNB Working Papers 453, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.

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