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Coherence Shifts in Probabilistic Inference Tasks

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Author Info
Andreas Glöckner () (Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods, Bonn)
Tilmann Betsch (University of Erfurt)
Nicola Schindler (University of Erfurt)
Abstract

The fast-and-frugal heuristics approach to probabilistic inference assumes that individuals often employ simple heuristics to integrate cue information that commonly function in a non-reciprocal fashion. Specifically, the subjective validity of a certain cue remains stable during the application of a heuristic and is not changed by the presence or absence of another cue. The parallel-constraint-satisfaction model, in contrast, predicts that information is processed in a reciprocal fashion. Specifically, it assumes that subjective cue validities interactively af-fect each other and are modified to coherently support the favored choice. Corresponding to the model’s simulation, we predicted the direction of such coherence shifts.Cue validities were measured before, after (Exp. 1) and during judgment (Exp. 2 & 3). Coherence shifts were found in environments involving real-world cue knowledge (weather forecasts) and in a domain for which the application of fast-and-frugal heuristics has been demonstrated (city-size tasks). The results indicate that subjective cue validities are not fixed parameters, but that they are interactively changed to form coherent representations of the task.

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Paper provided by Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods in its series Working Paper Series of the Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods with number 2008_14.

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Date of creation: Apr 2008
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Handle: RePEc:mpg:wpaper:2008_14

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Related research
Keywords: Judgment; Connectionism; Parallel Constraint Satisfaction; Fast-and-Frugal Heuristics; Adaptive Decision Making; Bounded Rationality;

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  1. Andreas Glöckner & Tilmann Betsch, 2008. "Modeling Option and Strategy Choices with Connectionist Networks: Towards an Integrative Model of Automatic and Deliberate Decision Making," Working Paper Series of the Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods 2008_02, Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods. [Downloadable!]
  2. Betsch, Tilmann & Haberstroh, Susanne & Glockner, Andreas & Haar, Thomas & Fiedler, Klaus, 2001. "The Effects of Routine Strength on Adaptation and Information Search in Recurrent Decision Making," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 84(1), pages 23-53, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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