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Gagnants ou perdants du commerce international : impact de l'ouverture commerciale sur la vulnérabilité de l'emploi

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  • Adama Zerbo

    (GED, Université Montesquieu Bordeaux IV)

Abstract

Fondée sur le théorème de décomposition de l’élasticité de l’emploi par rapport à la croissance économique, cette étude a examiné l’impact de l’ouverture commerciale sur la vulnérabilité de l’emploi selon le niveau de revenu des pays. Les estimations économétriques effectuées sur des données de 35 pays du monde montrent que sous l’hypothèse d’un solde commercial proche de l’équilibre, plus une nation a un taux d’ouverture commerciale élevé et un excédent de la part de produits manufacturés échangés élevé, plus son ouverture commerciale est favorable à l’emploi. Par contre, plus elle a un taux d’ouverture commerciale élevé et un déficit de la part de produits manufacturés échangés élevé, plus son ouverture commerciale est défavorable à l’emploi. Ainsi, dans les pays à revenu élevé, compte tenu de l’excédent de la part de produits manufacturés échangés, l’ouverture commerciale est favorable à l’emploi. La balance de la part de produits manufacturés échangés étant déficitaire dans les pays à faible revenu, leur ouverture commerciale accentue la vulnérabilité de l’emploi. A cet égard, outre la réduction du déficit de la balance commerciale, parvenir à une situation excédentaire de la part de produits manufacturés échangés est une condition nécessaire dans les pays pauvres pour bénéficier des bienfaits du commerce mondial. Based on the decomposition theorem of employment elasticity in relation to economic growth, this study aimed to examine the impact of trade openness on employment vulnerability by countries level income. Econometric estimates on data from 35 countries worldwide show that if we assume a trade balance of close to balance, more a country has high rate of open trade and a high surplus of share of manufactured goods traded, more its trade openness is conducive to employment. For cons, more it has high rate of open trade and a high deficit of share of manufactured goods traded, more its trade openness is unfavourable to employment. Thus, in high income countries, given surplus of share of manufactured goods traded, trade openness is conducive to employment. Insofar as the balance of share of manufactured goods traded is deficit in low-income countries, their trade openness increases the vulnerability of employment. In this regard, in addition to reducing deficit of their trade balance, achieving a surplus of share of manufactured goods traded is a necessary condition for poor countries to take advantage of global trade. (Full text in french)

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Groupe d'Economie du Développement de l'Université Montesquieu Bordeaux IV in its series Documents de travail with number 162.

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Length: 13 pages
Date of creation: Jan 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:mon:ceddtr:162

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Cited by:
  1. Adama Zerbo, 2011. "Quels itinéraires d'intégration au commerce mondial pour plus d'emplois décents ?," Documents de travail 166, Groupe d'Economie du Développement de l'Université Montesquieu Bordeaux IV.

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