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Exports, imports and growth. New evidence on Italy: 1863-2004

Author

Listed:
  • Barbara Pistoresi
  • Alberto Rinaldi

Abstract

The nexus between trade and economic growth in Italy has been widely debated by historiography. However, there are not long run analysis on this topic that cover the whole span from Unification to present days. This paper contributes to fill this gap by investigating the relationship between real exports, imports and GDP in Italy from 1863 to 2004 by using cointegration analysis and causality tests. The outcome suggests that these variables comove in the long run but the direction of causality varies across time. In the period prior to the First World War import growth led GDP growth that in turn led export growth. Conversely, in the post-Second World War period we have a strong bidirectionality between imports and exports consequent on the increase in intra-industry trade. We also find a weak support for export-led growth and growth-led imports. This suggests that exports were not the only or the main driver of economic growth. There was probably a multiplicity of factors at work, among which high rates of capital formation and the expansion of internal demand probably stood out

Suggested Citation

  • Barbara Pistoresi & Alberto Rinaldi, 2011. "Exports, imports and growth. New evidence on Italy: 1863-2004," Department of Economics 0666, University of Modena and Reggio E., Faculty of Economics "Marco Biagi".
    • Handle: RePEc:mod:depeco:0666
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Giovanni Federico & Paul Sharp & Antonio Tena-Junguito, 2017. "Openness and growth in a historical perspective: a VECM approach," Working Papers 0118, European Historical Economics Society (EHES).
    2. Jacopo Timini, 2018. "The drivers of Italian exports and product market entry: 1862-1913 (Updated August 2020)," Working Papers 1836, Banco de España, revised Aug 2020.
    3. Emanuele Felice, 2019. "Rethinking the take-off: the role of services in the new economic history of Italy (1861–1951)," Cliometrica, Springer;Cliometric Society (Association Francaise de Cliométrie), vol. 13(3), pages 405-442, September.
    4. Evans, Olaniyi, 2013. "Testing Finance-Led, Export-Led and Import-Led Growth Hypotheses on Four Sub-Saharan African Economies," MPRA Paper 52460, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Lim, Shiok Ye & Ho, Chong Mun, 2013. "Nonlinearity in ASEAN-5 export-led growth model: Empirical evidence from nonparametric approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 136-145.
    6. Sayef Bakari, 2017. "Appraisal of Trade Potency on Economic Growth in Sudan: New Empirical and Policy Analysis," Asian Development Policy Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 5(4), pages 213-225.
    7. Adesoye A. Bolaji & Adelowokan Oluwaseyi Adedayo & Alimi Y. Olorunfemi, 2018. "Time Series Analysis of Non-Oil Export Demand and Economic Performance in Nigeria," Iranian Economic Review (IER), Faculty of Economics,University of Tehran.Tehran,Iran, vol. 22(1), pages 295-314, Winter.
    8. Jacint Balaguer & Tatiana Florica & Jordi Ripollés, 2015. "Foreign trade and economic growth in Spain (1900–2012): the role of energy imports," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 32(3), pages 359-375, December.
    9. Bakari, Sayef, 2017. "Trade and Economic Growth in Germany," MPRA Paper 77404, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Bosupeng, Mpho, 2015. "Exports Multiplicity and The Dutch Disease," MPRA Paper 77919, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2015.
    11. Peter Wamalwa & Maureen Were, 2019. "Is export-led growth a mirage?: The case of Kenya," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2019-115, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Trade; economic growth; Italy; unit root tests; cointegration analysis; Granger-causality;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • N1 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations
    • N7 - Economic History - - Economic History: Transport, International and Domestic Trade, Energy, and Other Services

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