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Disaggregated Cost Pass-Through Based Econometric Inflation-Forecasting Model for Hungary

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  • Viktor Várpalotai

    ()
    (Magyar Nemzeti Bank)

Abstract

This paper presents one of the inflation forecasting models used by the Magyar Nemzeti Bank in its recent inflation forecasts. The model attempts to integrate all the properties of the former models considered by the author as being advantageous and desirable into a unified framework. Thus, this model is based on disaggregated econometric estimates, complemented by expert assumptions. The model explains the prices of marketed goods using their cost factors, capturing an assumed process whereby costs gradually pass through into consumer prices. It is the empirical estimation of this slow cost-price pass-through that provides the uniqueness of the model in terms of economic and econometric theory.

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File URL: http://english.mnb.hu/Root/Dokumentumtar/ENMNB/Kutatas/mnben_elorejelzo_modszerek/mnben_wp200304/wp2003_4.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Magyar Nemzeti Bank (the central bank of Hungary) in its series MNB Working Papers with number 2003/4.

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Length: 54 pages
Date of creation: 2003
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:mnb:wpaper:2003/4

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Web page: http://www.mnb.hu/
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Related research

Keywords: Bayesian Econometrics; Inflation; Forecasting model; Pass-through.;

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