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Leaving EMU: a real options perspective

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  • Frank Strobel

    (University of Birmingham)

Abstract

The real option implicit in a country's decision of whether to leave an existing monetary union when there is uncertainty over the future benefits of this move is examined. The theoretical model used is calibrated for the current Euro-12 area by proxying policymakers' inflation preferences with unemployment rates and debt-to-GDP ratios. A robust group of countries is observed that would choose to remain within EMU consisting of Belgium, Finland, Greece and Italy; France and Spain loosely also belong to this core. Only Luxembourg would robustly want to leave EMU; Ireland and The Netherlands, however, complement that core closely.
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Suggested Citation

  • Frank Strobel, 2004. "Leaving EMU: a real options perspective," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2004 83, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    • Handle: RePEc:mmf:mmfc04:83
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Barro, Robert J & Gordon, David B, 1983. "A Positive Theory of Monetary Policy in a Natural Rate Model," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(4), pages 589-610, August.
    2. Barro, Robert J. & Gordon, David B., 1983. "Rules, discretion and reputation in a model of monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 101-121.
    3. Robert J. Barro, 1983. "Inflationary Finance under Discretion and Rules," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 16(1), pages 1-16, February.
    4. Frank Strobel, 2001. "When to Leave a Monetary Union ?," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 52(2), pages 389-397.
    5. Culver, Sarah E & Papell, David H, 1997. "Is There a Unit Root in the Inflation Rate? Evidence from Sequential Break and Panel Data Models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(4), pages 435-444, July-Aug..
    6. Avinash K. Dixit & Robert S. Pindyck, 1994. "Investment under Uncertainty," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 5474.
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    Cited by:

    1. Chung-Gee Lin & Yu-Shan Wang, 2012. "Evaluating natural resource projects with embedded options and limited reserves," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(12), pages 1471-1482, April.
    2. Anke Mönnig, 2012. "Balancing the European Monetary Union - an Impact Analysis on the Return of National Currencies," GWS Discussion Paper Series 12-8, GWS - Institute of Economic Structures Research.
    3. Anke Mönnig, 2012. "Balancing the European Currency Union - an Impact Analysis on the Return of National Currencies," EcoMod2012 3831, EcoMod.

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