Public expenditure and growth volatility: do "globalisation" and institutions matter?
AbstractWe revisit the empirical relationship between output volatility and government expenditure in a model where the two are jointly deter- mined. The key regressors in our model are trade and ¯nancial integra- tion indicators, institutional variables, including central bank indepen- dence, and a measure of de facto exchange rate °exibility. Our ¯ndings consistently signal that government discretion has destabilising e®ects on growth volatility. We con¯rm that government size increases with trade integration, but this has adverse e®ects because public spending is positively related to growth volatility. Institutions that increase policy- makers accountability limit the level of public expenditure and volatility. In this regard, our results support the view that stronger institutions increase policy efficiency.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 116.
Length: 32 pages
Date of creation: 2007
Date of revision: 2007
Output volatility; government expenditure; trade openness; financial openness; central bank independence; political institutions;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
- F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
- E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
- E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General
- F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
- E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
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- Chinn, Menzie David & Ito, Hiro, 2005.
"What Matters for Financial Development? Capital Controls, Institutions, and Interactions,"
Santa Cruz Center for International Economics, Working Paper Series
qt5pv1j341, Center for International Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
- Chinn, Menzie D. & Ito, Hiro, 2006. "What matters for financial development? Capital controls, institutions, and interactions," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 163-192, October.
- Chinn,M.D. & Ito,H., 2005. "What matters for financial development? : capital controls, institutions, and interactions," Working papers 4, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
- Chinn, Menzie David & Ito, Hiro, 2005. "What Matters for Financial Development? Capital Controls, Institutions, and Interactions," Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt5pv1j341, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
- Menzie D. Chinn & Hiro Ito, 2005. "What Matters for Financial Development? Capital Controls, Institutions, and Interactions," NBER Working Papers 11370, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Atish R. Ghosh & Anne-Marie Gulde & Holger C. Wolf, 2003. "Exchange Rate Regimes: Choices and Consequences," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262072408.
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