Stock Market Expectations of Dutch Households
AbstractDespite its importance for the analysis of life-cycle behavior and, in particular, retirement planning, stock ownership by private households is poorly understood. Among other approaches to investigate this puzzle, recent research has started to elicit private households’ expectations of stock market returns. This paper reports findings from a study that collected data over a two-year period both on households’ stock market expectations (subjective probabilities of gains or losses) and on whether they own stocks. We document substantial heterogeneity in financial market expectations. Expectations are correlated with stock ownership. Over the two years of our data, stock market prices increased, and expectations of future stock market price changes also increased, lending support to the view that expectations are influenced by recent stock gains or losses.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) at the Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy in its series MEA discussion paper series with number 10206.
Date of creation: 19 Oct 2010
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) at the Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy, Amalienstraße 33, 80799 München, Germany
Web page: http://www.mea.mpisoc.mpg.de/
Other versions of this item:
- Michael D. Hurd & Maarten van Rooij & Joachim Winter, 2010. "Stock Market Expectations of Dutch Households," NBER Working Papers 16464, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Michael Hurd & Maarten van Rooij & Joachim Winter, 2009. "Stock Market Expectations of Dutch Households," DNB Working Papers 228, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
- C42 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Survey Methods
- D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
- D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
- G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- John R. Graham & Campbell R. Harvey, 2001. "Expectations of Equity Risk Premia, Volatility and Asymmetry from a Corporate Finance Perspective," NBER Working Papers 8678, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Barsky, Robert B, et al, 1997. "Preference Parameters and Behavioral Heterogeneity: An Experimental Approach in the Health and Retirement Study," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 112(2), pages 537-79, May.
- Elyès Jouini & Clotilde Napp, 2003.
"Consensus consumer and intertemporal asset pricing with heterogeneous beliefs,"
- Ely�s Jouini & Clotilde Napp, 2007. "Consensus Consumer and Intertemporal Asset Pricing with Heterogeneous Beliefs," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 74(4), pages 1149-1174.
- Clotilde Napp & Elyès Jouini, 2007. "Consensus consumer and intertemporal asset pricing with heterogeneous beliefs," Post-Print halshs-00152348, HAL.
- Charles F. Manski, 2004. "Measuring Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 72(5), pages 1329-1376, 09.
- Haliassos, Michael & Bertaut, Carol C, 1995. "Why Do So Few Hold Stocks?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 105(432), pages 1110-29, September.
- repec:ner:dauphi:urn:hdl:123456789/78 is not listed on IDEAS
- Jeff Dominitz & Charles F. Manski, 2011.
"Measuring and interpreting expectations of equity returns,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics,
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(3), pages 352-370, 04.
- Jeff Dominitz & Charles F. Manski, 2005. "Measuring and Interpreting Expectations of Equity Returns," NBER Working Papers 11313, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Jeff Dominitz & Charles F. Manski, 2007. "Expected Equity Returns and Portfolio Choice: Evidence from the Health and Retirement Study," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 5(2-3), pages 369-379, 04-05.
- Jouini, Elyès & Napp, Clotilde, 2007. "Consensus Consumer and Intertemporal Asset Pricing with Heterogeneous Beliefs," Economics Papers from University Paris Dauphine 123456789/78, Paris Dauphine University.
- J. Dominitz & C. F. Manski, .
"Using expectations data to study subjective income expectations,"
Institute for Research on Poverty Discussion Papers
1050-94, University of Wisconsin Institute for Research on Poverty.
- Jeff Dominitz & Charles F. Manski, 1994. "Using Expectations Data to Study Subjective Income Expectations," NBER Working Papers 4937, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Jeff Dominitz & Charles F. Manski, 1994. "Using Expectations Data to Study Subjective Income Expectations," Econometrics 9411003, EconWPA.
- Kandel, Eugene & Pearson, Neil D, 1995. "Differential Interpretation of Public Signals and Trade in Speculative Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 103(4), pages 831-72, August.
- F. Thomas Juster, 1966. "Consumer Buying Intentions and Purchase Probability: An Experiment in Survey Design," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number just66-2.
- Raffaele Miniaci & Sergio Pastorello, 2010.
"Mean-variance econometric analysis of household portfolios,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics,
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(3), pages 481-504.
- Raffaele Miniaci & Sergio Pastorello, 2008. "Mean-Variance Econometric Analysis of Household Portfolios," Working Papers 0807, University of Brescia, Department of Economics.
- Robert B. Barsky & Miles S. Kimball & F. Thomas Juster & Matthew D. Shapiro, 1997. "Preference Parameters and Behavioral Heterogeneity: An Experimental Approach in the Health and Retirement Survey," NBER Working Papers 5213, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Christopher D Carroll, 2002.
"Macroeconomic Expectations of Households and Professional Forecasters,"
Economics Working Paper Archive
477, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.
- Christopher D. Carroll, 2003. "Macroeconomic Expectations Of Households And Professional Forecasters," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 118(1), pages 269-298, February.
- Manski, Charles F. & Molinari, Francesca, 2010. "Rounding Probabilistic Expectations in Surveys," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 28(2), pages 219-231.
- Mayshar, Joram, 1983. "On Divergence of Opinion and Imperfections in Capital Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(1), pages 114-28, March.
- William A. Branch, 2004. "The Theory of Rationally Heterogeneous Expectations: Evidence from Survey Data on Inflation Expectations," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 114(497), pages 592-621, 07.
- Hoffmann, Arvid O.I. & Post, Thomas & Pennings, Joost M.E., 2013. "Individual investor perceptions and behavior during the financial crisis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 60-74.
- Marco Angrisani & Michael D. Hurd & Erik Meijer, 2012. "Investment Decisions in Retirement: The Role of Subjective Expectations," Working Papers wp274, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center.
- Joachim Winter & Amelie C. Wuppermann, 2012. "Do they Know what's at Risk? Health Risk Perception among the Obese," CESifo Working Paper Series 3864, CESifo Group Munich.
- Guiso, Luigi & Sodini, Paolo, 2012.
"Household Finance: An Emerging Field,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
8934, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Michael D. Hurd & Susann Rohwedder, 2012. "Stock Price Expectations and Stock Trading," NBER Working Papers 17973, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Henning Frankenberger) The email address of this maintainer does not seem to be valid anymore. Please ask Henning Frankenberger to update the entry or send us the correct address.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.