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Stock Market Expectations of Dutch Households

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  • Hurd, Michael
  • Van Rooij, Marten
  • Winter, Joachim

    ()
    (Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA))

Abstract

Despite its importance for the analysis of life-cycle behavior and, in particular, retirement planning, stock ownership by private households is poorly understood. Among other approaches to investigate this puzzle, recent research has started to elicit private households’ expectations of stock market returns. This paper reports findings from a study that collected data over a two-year period both on households’ stock market expectations (subjective probabilities of gains or losses) and on whether they own stocks. We document substantial heterogeneity in financial market expectations. Expectations are correlated with stock ownership. Over the two years of our data, stock market prices increased, and expectations of future stock market price changes also increased, lending support to the view that expectations are influenced by recent stock gains or losses.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) at the Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy in its series MEA discussion paper series with number 10206.

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Date of creation: 19 Oct 2010
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Handle: RePEc:mea:meawpa:10206

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  1. Haliassos, Michael & Bertaut, Carol C, 1995. "Why Do So Few Hold Stocks?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 105(432), pages 1110-29, September.
  2. Raffaele Miniaci & Sergio Pastorello, 2008. "Mean-Variance Econometric Analysis of Household Portfolios," Working Papers 0807, University of Brescia, Department of Economics.
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  7. Manski, Charles F. & Molinari, Francesca, 2010. "Rounding Probabilistic Expectations in Surveys," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 28(2), pages 219-231.
  8. Jeff Dominitz & Charles F. Manski, 1994. "Using Expectations Data to Study Subjective Income Expectations," NBER Working Papers 4937, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Kandel, Eugene & Pearson, Neil D, 1995. "Differential Interpretation of Public Signals and Trade in Speculative Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 103(4), pages 831-72, August.
  10. Mayshar, Joram, 1983. "On Divergence of Opinion and Imperfections in Capital Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(1), pages 114-28, March.
  11. F. Thomas Juster, 1966. "Consumer Buying Intentions and Purchase Probability: An Experiment in Survey Design," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number just66-2, May.
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  14. John R. Graham & Campbell R. Harvey, 2001. "Expectations of Equity Risk Premia, Volatility and Asymmetry from a Corporate Finance Perspective," NBER Working Papers 8678, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Barsky, Robert B, et al, 1997. "Preference Parameters and Behavioral Heterogeneity: An Experimental Approach in the Health and Retirement Study," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 112(2), pages 537-79, May.
  16. William A. Branch, 2004. "The Theory of Rationally Heterogeneous Expectations: Evidence from Survey Data on Inflation Expectations," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 114(497), pages 592-621, 07.
  17. Jouini, Elyès & Napp, Clotilde, 2007. "Consensus Consumer and Intertemporal Asset Pricing with Heterogeneous Beliefs," Economics Papers from University Paris Dauphine 123456789/78, Paris Dauphine University.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Marco Angrisani & Michael D. Hurd & Erik Meijer, 2012. "Investment Decisions in Retirement: The Role of Subjective Expectations," Working Papers wp274, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center.
  2. van der Cruijsen, Carin & de Haan, Jakob & Jansen, David-Jan & Mosch, Robert, 2013. "Knowledge and opinions about banking supervision: Evidence from a survey of Dutch households," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 219-229.
  3. Guiso, Luigi & Sodini, Paolo, 2012. "Household Finance: An Emerging Field," CEPR Discussion Papers 8934, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Michael D. Hurd & Susann Rohwedder, 2012. "Stock Price Expectations and Stock Trading," NBER Working Papers 17973, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Necker, Sarah & Ziegelmeyer, Michael, 2014. "Household Risk Taking after the Financial Crisis," MEA discussion paper series 14279, Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) at the Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy.
  6. Federica Teppa & Corrie Vis, 2012. "The CentERpanel and the DNB Household Survey: Methodological Aspects," DNB Occasional Studies 1004, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
  7. Hoffmann, Arvid O.I. & Post, Thomas & Pennings, Joost M.E., 2013. "Individual investor perceptions and behavior during the financial crisis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 60-74.
  8. Joachim Winter & Amelie C. Wuppermann, 2012. "Do they Know what's at Risk? Health Risk Perception among the Obese," CESifo Working Paper Series 3864, CESifo Group Munich.

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