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Mehr Zuwanderung? Zur Rolle des Auslands bei der Stabilisierung der gesetzlichen Rentenversicherung in Deutschland

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  • Axel Börsch-Supan

    ()
    (Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA))

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    Abstract

    Angesichts der anhaltend niedrigen Geburtenraten und der bedrohten langfristigen Stabilität der Gesetzlichen Rentenversicherung kommt in Deutschland immer von neuem die Diskussion auf, ob eine erhöhte Zuwanderung die rettende Rolle spielen kann, die uns vor schmerzhaften Einschnitten in das Sozialsystem verschont. Dieser Beitrag untersucht die Auswirkungen der Zuwanderung auf die umlagefinanzierte deutsche Rentenversicherung und beantwortet die obige Frage negativ: Keineswegs kann die deutsche Sozialpolitik hoffen, daß ihr die nötigen Reformen von Zuwanderern abgenommen werden. Eine in realistischen Größenordnungen stattfindende Zuwanderung dämpft zwar auch langfristig den Beitragssatz zur Gesetzlichen Rentenversicherung, d.h., wenn Zuwanderer selbst Leistungsempfänger werden, spielt aber letztlich nur eine Nebenrolle. Die Hauptrolle bei der Stabilisierung der deutschen Rentenversicherung muß die derzeitige Strukturreform erbringen. Wenn nicht per Zuwanderung, so spielt das Ausland dennoch eine wichtige Rolle bei der Bewältigung der Altersstrukturverschiebung. Die hilfreichen Mechanismen involvieren aber eher die Kapital- und Gütermärkte als den Arbeitsmarkt – auch dann, wenn es um die Lösung von Problemen geht, die (zunächst) auf dem Arbeitsmarkt sichtbar werden.

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    Paper provided by Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) at the Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy in its series MEA discussion paper series with number 02022.

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    Date of creation: 20 Apr 2002
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    Handle: RePEc:mea:meawpa:02022

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    Postal: Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) at the Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy, Amalienstraße 33, 80799 München, Germany
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    1. Borsch-Supan, Axel & Schnabel, Reinhold, 1998. "Social Security and Declining Labor-Force Participation in Germany," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(2), pages 173-78, May.
    2. Axel Börsch-Supan, 2002. "Labor market effects of population aging," MEA discussion paper series 02011, Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) at the Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy.
    3. Hans-Werner Sinn, 1997. "The Value of Children and Immigrants in a Pay-As-You-Go Pension System: A Proposal for a Partial Transition to a Funded System," NBER Working Papers 6229, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. George J. Borjas, 1994. "The Economics of Immigration," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 32(4), pages 1667-1717, December.
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