Modelling the Age Dynamics of Chronic Health Conditions: Life-Table-Consistent Transition Probabilities and Their Application
AbstractWe derive transition probability matrices for chronic health conditions using survey prevalence data. Matrices are constructed for successive age groups and the sequence represents the “age dynamics” of the health conditions for a stationary population – the probabilities of acquiring the conditions, of moving from one chronic conditions state to another, and of dying. One can simulate the life path of a cohort under the initial probabilities, and again under altered probabilities to explore the effects of eliminating a particular condition or reducing its mortality probabilities. We report the results of such simulations and note the general applicability of the methods.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by McMaster University in its series Social and Economic Dimensions of an Aging Population Research Papers with number 288.
Length: 40 pages
Date of creation: Nov 2011
Date of revision:
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Chronic health conditions; transition probabilities; age dynamics;
Other versions of this item:
- Frank T. Denton & Byron G. Spencer, 2011. "Modelling the Age Dynamics of Chronic Health Conditions: Life-Table-Consistent Transition Probabilities and their Application," Quantitative Studies in Economics and Population Research Reports 448, McMaster University.
- I19 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Other
- J19 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Other
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-AGE-2011-12-19 (Economics of Ageing)
- NEP-ALL-2011-12-19 (All new papers)
- NEP-HEA-2011-12-19 (Health Economics)
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