Using Statistics Canada LifePaths Microsimulation Model to Project the Health Status of Canadian Elderly

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Using Statistics Canada LifePaths Microsimulation Model to Project the Health Status of Canadian Elderly

Author Info

Jacques Légaré
Yann Décarie

Abstract

Complex population projections usually use microsimulation models; in Canada, Statistics Canada has developed a global dynamic microsimulation model named LifePaths in the Modgen programming language to be used in policy research. LifePaths provides a platform to build on for our research program, conjointly with Dr Janice Keefe from Mount Saint Vincent University, on projections of the Canadian chronic homecare needs for the elderly up to 2031 and of the human resources required. Beside marital status, family networks and living arrangements, future health status of the elderly is a key variable, but an intricate one. Since health status transitions were previously conditioned only on age and sex, we will use here the current disability module of LifePaths with longitudinal data from Canada’s National Population Health Survey (NPHS). These new health status transitions are considering other significant explicative variables like marital status, education etc. We will then present projections of future Canadian elderly by health status and a comparison with nine European countries for the Future Elderly Living Conditions in Europe (FELICIE) Research Program which has used the same approach. Our previous researches have shown the importance of future disability level for the management of an elderly society. The main output of the present paper would first produce, with new health scenarios, new estimates for Canada of elderly in poor health, for those aged 75 and over. Secondly, it would produce an interesting comparative analysis, useful especially for implementing new policies for the well-being of the Canadian elderly.

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Paper provided by McMaster University in its series Social and Economic Dimensions of an Aging Population Research Papers with number 227.

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Length: 27 pages
Date of creation: Jan 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:mcm:sedapp:227

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods
I19 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Other

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

NEP-AGE-2008-01-12 (Economics of Ageing)
NEP-ALL-2008-01-12 (All new papers)
NEP-CMP-2008-01-12 (Computational Economics)
NEP-HEA-2008-01-12 (Health Economics)

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