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The life expectancy gains from pharmaceutical drugs: a critical appraisal of the literature

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Listed:
  • Paul Grootendorst
  • Emmanuelle Piérard
  • Minsup Shim

Abstract

Several studies suggest that, on the basis of life expectancy (LE) regressions, new pharmaceutical drugs are responsible for some of the marked gains in LE observed over the last 50 years. We critically appraise these studies. We point out several modeling issues, including disentangling the contribution of new drugs from advances in disease management, changes in the distribution of health care and other confounding factors. We suggest that the studies estimates of pharmaceutical productivity are implausibly high. Some of the models have very large forecast errors. Finally, the models that we replicated were found to be sensitive to seemingly innocuous changes in specification. We conclude that it is difficult to estimate the bio-medical determinants of LE using aggregate data. Analyses using individual level data or perhaps disease specific data will likely produce more compelling results.

Suggested Citation

  • Paul Grootendorst & Emmanuelle Piérard & Minsup Shim, 2007. "The life expectancy gains from pharmaceutical drugs: a critical appraisal of the literature," Social and Economic Dimensions of an Aging Population Research Papers 221, McMaster University.
    • Handle: RePEc:mcm:sedapp:221
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    File URL: http://socserv.mcmaster.ca/sedap/p/sedap221.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Pierre‐Yves Crémieux & Marie‐Claude Meilleur & Pierre Ouellette & Patrick Petit & Martin Zelder & Ken Potvin, 2005. "Public and private pharmaceutical spending as determinants of health outcomes in Canada," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(2), pages 107-116, February.
    2. Gerdtham, Ulf-G. & Jonsson, Bengt, 2000. "International comparisons of health expenditure: Theory, data and econometric analysis," Handbook of Health Economics, in: A. J. Culyer & J. P. Newhouse (ed.), Handbook of Health Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 1, pages 11-53, Elsevier.
    3. James W. Shaw & William C. Horrace & Ronald J. Vogel, 2005. "The Determinants of Life Expectancy: An Analysis of the OECD Health Data," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 71(4), pages 768-783, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Vincenzo Atella & Francesco D'Amico, 2010. "Who is responsible for your health: You, your doctor or new technologies?," CEIS Research Paper 167, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 28 May 2010.
    2. G. Emmanuel Guindon & Paul Contoyannis, 2012. "A Second Look At Pharmaceutical Spending As Determinants Of Health Outcomes In Canada," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(12), pages 1477-1495, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    pharmaceuticals; life expectancy; health production; treatment effects;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I12 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Behavior
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health

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