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Trade, Production-Sharing and the Exchange Rate: A Decade of U.S.-Mexican Integration

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Author Info
Sven W. Arndt
Alex Huemer () (Lowe Institute of Political Economy, Claremont McKenna College)

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Abstract

This paper examines the effect of cross-border production sharing on the sensitivity of trade to the exchange rate and to other key variables. Theoretically, the response of a country's exports to the exchange rate should decline as the share of exported components for use in the manufacture of its imports rises. Similarly, the response of its imports of end products should decline as the share of its exported components in those imports rises. The response of a country's imports to domestic GDP should decline and the response to the exporting country's GDP should rise as the share of imported components for use in the manufacture of exports rises. These propositions are tested for trade between the U.S. and Mexico, using OLS and VEC techniques and allowing for the impact of NAFTA. The findings broadly confirm the aforementioned priors. In addition to their implications for trade-balance adjustment, these results have potentially important implications for the choice of exchange-rate regime.

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Paper provided by Lowe Institute of Political Economy in its series Working Papers with number 0502.

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Length: 35 pages Creation Date: 2003-12 Revision Date: 2005-02
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Handle: RePEc:loi:wpaper:0502

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Related research
Keywords: trade balance; fragmentation; intra-industry trade; exchange rates; NAFTA.;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Country and Industry Studies of Trade
F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Phillips, P.C.B., 1986. "Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series Regression," Cahiers de recherche 8633, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
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  2. Sven W. Arndt, 1997. "Globalization and the Open Economy," Working Papers 9701, Lowe Institute of Political Economy. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Phillips, P C B, 1987. "Time Series Regression with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 277-301, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
  5. Robert C. Feenstra, . "Integration Of Trade And Disintegration Of Production In The Global Economy," Department of Economics 98-06, California Davis - Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Patricia S. Pollard & Cletus C. Coughlin, 2004. "Size matters: asymmetric exchange rate pass-through at the industry level," Working Papers 2003-029, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
  7. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-38, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Deardorff, Alan V., 2001. "Fragmentation in simple trade models," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 121-137, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Johansen, Soren, 1992. "Determination of Cointegration Rank in the Presence of a Linear Trend," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 383-97, August.
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Kemal Türkcan, . "Vertical Intra-Industry Trade: An Empirical Examination of the Austria’s Auto-Parts Industry," FIW Working Paper series 030, FIW. [Downloadable!]
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