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Estimation of a Joint Model for the Term Structure of Interest Rates and the Macroeconomy

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Author Info
Hans Dewachter () (K.U.Leuven and Erasmus University of Rotterdam)
Marco Lyrio () (K.U.Leuven, C.E.S., International Economics)
Konstantijn Maes () (K.U.Leuven, C.E.S., International Economics)

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Abstract

In this paper, we present a stylized continuous time model integrating the macroeconomy and the bond markets. We use this framework to estimate (real) interest rate policy rules using information contained in both macroeconomic variables (i.e. output and inflation) and in the term structure of interest rates. We extend the standard Kalman filter procedure in order to estimate this model efficiently. Application to the U.S. economy shows that this model is able to estimate the macroeconomic dynamics accurately and that the standard feedback rule only in observable factors is not valid within this framework. Moreover, we find that observable macroeconomic variables do not explain much of the term structure. However, (filtered) stochastic central tendencies of these macroeconomic variables do. Finally, both observable and non-observable factors determine the risk premia and hence the excess holding returns of the bonds.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, Centrum voor Economische Studiën, International Economics in its series International Economics Working Papers Series with number ces0118.

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Length: 60 pages
Date of creation: Jun 2001
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Handle: RePEc:kul:kulwps:ces0118

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Related research
Keywords: essentially affine term structure model; feedback interest rate rule; forecasting;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Determination of Interest Rates; Term Structure of Interest Rates
E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

Cited by:
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  1. Konstantijn Maes, 2004. "Modeling the Term Structure of Interest Rates: Where Do We Stand?," Research series 200402, National Bank of Belgium. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Greg Duffee, 2005. "Term structure estimation without using latent factors," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 103, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
  3. Marco Lyrio & Hans Dewachter & Konstantijn Maes, 2006. "A joint model for the term structure of interest rates and the macroeconomy," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(4), pages 439-462. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Dewachter, H.D.R. & Lyrio, M., 2003. "Macro factors and the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Research Paper ERS-2003-037-F&A Revision, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus Uni. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Hans Dewachter & Marco Lyrio & Konstantijn Maes, 2006. "A multi-factor model for the valuation and risk managment of demand deposits," Research series 200605-2, National Bank of Belgium. [Downloadable!]
  6. Marco Lyrio & Hans Dewachter, 2004. "Filtering Long-Run Inflation Expectations with a Structural Macro Model of the Yield Curve," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 188, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
  7. Michael R. Wickens & Chiona Balfoussia, 2004. "Macroeconomic Sources of Risk in the Term Structure," CEIS Research Paper 61, Tor Vergata University, CEIS. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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