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The Effect of Monetary Unification on German Bond Markets

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Author Info
Hans Dewachter () (K.U.Leuven and Erasmus University of Rotterdam)
Marco Lyrio () (K.U.Leuven, C.E.S., International Economics)
Konstantijn Maes () (K.U.Leuven, C.E.S., International Economics)

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Abstract

This paper uses reprojection to develop a benchmark to assess ECB monetary policy since January 1999, the start of EMU. We first estimate an essentially affine term structure model for the German SWAP yield curve between 1987:04-1998:12. The German monetary policy is then reprojected onto the EMU period (1999:01-2001:08). We find that the German real interest rate in place during the EMU period is significantly lower than it would have been in case the Bundesbank were still in charge. We also show the effect of EMU on the German SWAP yield curve. Short- and medium-term bonds seem to have been more affected than long-term bonds.

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File URL: http://www.econ.kuleuven.ac.be/ew/academic/intecon/publications/wpie005.pdf
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, Centrum voor Economische Studiën, International Economics in its series International Economics Working Papers Series with number wpie005.

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Length: 45 pages
Date of creation: Nov 2001
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Handle: RePEc:kul:kulwps:wpie005

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Keywords: EMU ECB Bundesbank central bank monetary policy rule essentially affine term structure model

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Determination of Interest Rates; Term Structure of Interest Rates
E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

Cited by:
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  1. Markus Junker & Alexander Szimayer & Niklas Wagner, 2004. "Nonlinear Term Structure Dependence: Copula Functions, Empirics, and Risk Implications," Econometrics 0401007, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  2. Peter Vlaar, 2007. "Term Structure Modeling for Pension Funds:What to do in Practice?," DNB Working Papers 123, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  3. Marco Lyrio & Hans Dewachter & Konstantijn Maes, 2006. "A joint model for the term structure of interest rates and the macroeconomy," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(4), pages 439-462. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. SANTOS, Carlos & OLIVEIRA, Maria Alberta, 2007. "Modelling The German Yield Curve And Testing The Lucas Critique, 1975-2001," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 7(1). [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Hans Dewachter & Marco Lyrio & Konstantijn Maes, 2006. "A multi-factor model for the valuation and risk managment of demand deposits," Research series 200605-2, National Bank of Belgium. [Downloadable!]
  6. Marco Lyrio & Hans Dewachter, 2004. "Filtering Long-Run Inflation Expectations with a Structural Macro Model of the Yield Curve," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 188, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
  7. Peter Hoerdahl & Oreste Tristani, 2004. "A joint econometric model of macroeconomic and term structure dynamics," Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings 379, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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