Ruthira Naraidoo () (Keele University, Centre for Economic Research and School of Economic and Management Studies) Patrick Minford () (Cardiff Business School, Aberconway Building, Cardiff University) Ioannis A. Venetis () (University of Patras, Department of Economics)
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This paper develops a political economy model of multiple unemployment equilibria to provide a theory of an endogenous natural rate of unemployment using a nonlinear threshold model for a number of OECD countries. The theory here sees the natural rate and the associated path of unemployment as a reaction to shocks (mainly demand in nature) and the institutional structure of the economy. The channel through which these two forces feed on each other is a political economy process whereby voters with limited information on the natural rate react to shocks by demanding more or less social protection. The empirical results obtained confirm the existence of multiple and ``moving'' equilibria (``vicious'' and ``virtuous'' circles). The nonlinear model is compared with a linear version with the nonlinear framework always exhibiting superior in-sample fit and generally better out-of-sample predictive accuracy. The conclusion is that macroeconomics and supply side policies feed on each other via the political economy.
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Centre for Economic Research, Keele University in its series Keele Economics Research Papers with number
KERP 2006/21.
Length: 40 pages Date of creation: Oct 2006 Date of revision: Handle: RePEc:kee:kerpuk:2006/21
Note: The authors would like to thank James Davidson, Costas Milas, David Peele, Ivan Paya and workshop participants for helpful comments. Contact details of provider: Postal: Department of Economics, University of Keele, Keele, Staffordshire, ST5 5BG - United Kingdom Phone: +44 (0)1782 584581 Fax: +44 (0)1782 717577 Email: Web page: http://www.keele.ac.uk/depts/ec/cer/ More information through EDIRC
Order Information: Postal: Centre for Economic Research, Research Institute for Public Policy and Management, Keele University, Staffordshire ST5 5BG - United Kingdom Email: Web: http://www.keele.ac.uk/depts/ec/cer/pubs_kerps.htm
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