The political economy of unemployment and threshold effects. A nonlinear time series approach
AbstractThis paper develops a political economy model of multiple unemployment equilibria to provide a theory of an endogenous natural rate of unemployment using a nonlinear threshold model for a number of OECD countries. The theory here sees the natural rate and the associated path of unemployment as a reaction to shocks (mainly demand in nature) and the institutional structure of the economy. The channel through which these two forces feed on each other is a political economy process whereby voters with limited information on the natural rate react to shocks by demanding more or less social protection. The empirical results obtained confirm the existence of multiple and ``moving'' equilibria (``vicious'' and ``virtuous'' circles). The nonlinear model is compared with a linear version with the nonlinear framework always exhibiting superior in-sample fit and generally better out-of-sample predictive accuracy. The conclusion is that macroeconomics and supply side policies feed on each other via the political economy.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Centre for Economic Research, Keele University in its series Keele Economics Research Papers with number KERP 2006/21.
Length: 40 pages
Date of creation: Oct 2006
Date of revision:
Note: The authors would like to thank James Davidson, Costas Milas, David Peele, Ivan Paya and workshop participants for helpful comments.
Contact details of provider:
Postal: Department of Economics, University of Keele, Keele, Staffordshire, ST5 5BG - United Kingdom
Phone: +44 (0)1782 584581
Fax: +44 (0)1782 717577
Web page: http://www.keele.ac.uk/depts/ec/cer/
More information through EDIRC
Postal: Centre for Economic Research, Research Institute for Public Policy and Management, Keele University, Staffordshire ST5 5BG - United Kingdom
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution
- E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- P16 - Economic Systems - - Capitalist Systems - - - Political Economy of Capitalism
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2006-11-25 (All new papers)
- NEP-ETS-2006-11-25 (Econometric Time Series)
- NEP-FOR-2006-11-25 (Forecasting)
- NEP-MAC-2006-11-25 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-POL-2006-11-25 (Positive Political Economics)
You can help add them by filling out this form.
reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.Access and download statisticsgeneral information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Martin E. Diedrich) The email address of this maintainer does not seem to be valid anymore. Please ask Martin E. Diedrich to update the entry or send us the correct address.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.