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Retrospective Voting in Turkey: Macro and Micro Perspectives

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  • Hazama, Yasushi
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    Abstract

    Recent studies have shown that party systems in emerging democracies do not always adequately reflect the various cleavages of society. Under such circumstances, retrospective voting may play a more important role than cleavage voting in determining electoral outcomes. For studies of retrospective voting, the choice between macro and micro level as the independent variable is a major methodological issue. Using individual-level data on Turkey, this paper addresses two major questions: (1) Are voters' decisions based on household economic conditions or national economic conditions? Do sociopolitical conditions also count? (2) Does the future evaluation of the economy affect voting decisions apart from past evaluation? Logit models are used in this research to answer these questions.

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    File URL: http://ir.ide.go.jp/dspace/bitstream/2344/160/3/ARRIDE_Discussion_No.46_hazama.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2006
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO) in its series IDE Discussion Papers with number 46.

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    Date of creation: Jan 2006
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    Publication status: Published in IDE Discussion Paper. No. 46. 2006.1
    Handle: RePEc:jet:dpaper:dpaper46

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    Related research

    Keywords: Retrospective voting; Elections; Turkey;

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

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    Cited by:
    1. Toros, Emre, 2012. "Forecasting Turkish local elections," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 813-821.
    2. Toros, Emre, 2011. "Forecasting elections in Turkey," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 1248-1258, October.

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