Retrospective Voting in Turkey: Macro and Micro Perspectives
AbstractRecent studies have shown that party systems in emerging democracies do not always adequately reflect the various cleavages of society. Under such circumstances, retrospective voting may play a more important role than cleavage voting in determining electoral outcomes. For studies of retrospective voting, the choice between macro and micro level as the independent variable is a major methodological issue. Using individual-level data on Turkey, this paper addresses two major questions: (1) Are voters' decisions based on household economic conditions or national economic conditions? Do sociopolitical conditions also count? (2) Does the future evaluation of the economy affect voting decisions apart from past evaluation? Logit models are used in this research to answer these questions.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO) in its series IDE Discussion Papers with number 46.
Date of creation: Jan 2006
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Publication status: Published in IDE Discussion Paper. No. 46. 2006.1
Postal: Publication Office, IDE 3-2-2 Wakaba, Mihama-ku, Chiba-shi, Chiba 261-8545 JAPAN
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2006-11-18 (All new papers)
- NEP-CDM-2006-11-18 (Collective Decision-Making)
- NEP-DCM-2006-11-18 (Discrete Choice Models)
- NEP-POL-2006-11-18 (Positive Political Economics)
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- Toros, Emre, 2011. "Forecasting elections in Turkey," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 1248-1258, October.
- Toros, Emre, 2012. "Forecasting Turkish local elections," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 813-821.
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