Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Arbeitsmarkteffekte und finanzpolitische Folgen der demographischen Alterung in Deutschland


Author Info

  • Arnds, Pascal


  • Bonin, Holger

    (ZEW Mannheim)


Die deutsche Bevölkerung durchläuft in den nächsten Jahrzehnten einen demographischen Alterungsprozess, der als erstes die Erwerbsbevölkerung erfasst. Dieser Beitrag diskutiert die ökonomischen Folgen dieser Entwicklung. Direkte Arbeitsmarkteffekte einer schrumpfenden und alternden Erwerbsbevölkerung werden anhand der möglichen Auswirkungen auf Arbeitsproduktivität, Entlohnung und den Humankapitalbestand herausgearbeitet. Indirekte Arbeitsmarktwirkungen ergeben sich aus den fiskalischen Folgen einer steigenden Altenlast. Die Abgabenbelastung des Faktors Arbeit wird sich wegen fehlender Nachhaltigkeit der öffentlichen Haushalte und der Sozialversicherungsbudgets in Zukunft deutlich erhöhen. Wachsenden Staatsschulden in Verbindung mit rückläufiger privater Ersparnis könnten die Zunahme des Produktionspotenzials behindern. Labor Market and Fiscal Consequences of Demographic Aging in Germany Germany faces a demographic aging process which affects the working-age population first. This paper surveys some important economic consequences of this development. To assess the direct impact of an aging labor force on labor markets, we discuss possible effects on labor productivity, wages, and human capital. We also show that the fast-growing dependency ratio may affect labor markets negatively through public finances. Since government budgets are unsustainable in the long-term, the fiscal burden on labor could increase substantially. Finally, economic growth may slow down as a result of expanding public deficits in combination with falling private savings.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL:
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) in its series IZA Discussion Papers with number 667.

as in new window
Length: 61 pages
Date of creation: Dec 2002
Date of revision:
Publication status: published in: M. Herfurth, M. Kohli and K. F. Zimmermann (eds.), Arbeit in einer alternden Gesellschaft (Labor in an Aging Society), Leverkusen: Leske+Budrich, 2003, 131-177
Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp667

Contact details of provider:
Postal: IZA, P.O. Box 7240, D-53072 Bonn, Germany
Phone: +49 228 3894 223
Fax: +49 228 3894 180
Web page:

Order Information:
Postal: IZA, Margard Ody, P.O. Box 7240, D-53072 Bonn, Germany

Related research

Keywords: Germany; labor markets; fiscal sustainability; demographic aging; survey;

Find related papers by JEL classification:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:


No references listed on IDEAS
You can help add them by filling out this form.


Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Beate Grundig & Carsten Pohl, 2004. "Die Auswirkungen des demographischen Wandels auf den Arbeitsmarkt in Sachsen – Analyse und Gegenstrategien," Ifo Schnelldienst, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 57(14), pages 05-14, 07.
  2. Beate Grundig & Carsten Pohl, 2004. "Auswirkungen des demographischen Wandels auf den Arbeitsmarkt in Sachsen : Analyse und Gegenstrategien," ifo Dresden berichtet, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 11(03), pages 05-17, 06.
  3. Ehrentraut, Oliver & Raffelhüschen, Bernd, 2003. "Die Rentenversicherung unter Reformdruck: Ein Drama in drei Akten," Discussion Papers 109, Institut für Finanzwissenschaft, Albert-Ludwigs-Universität Freiburg.
  4. Marcus Dittrich & Wolfgang Gerstenberger & Beate Grundig & Gunther Markwardt & Carsten Pohl & Heinz Schmalholz & Marcel Thum, 2004. "Demographische Entwicklung im Freistaat Sachsen : Analyse und Strategien zum Bevölkerungsrückgang auf dem Arbeitsmarkt ; Gutachten im Auftrag der Sächsischen Staatskanzlei," ifo Dresden Studien, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 36, October.
  5. Arnaud Lechevalier, 2004. "Reform des Sozialstaats in Deutschland und Frankreich: was auf dem Spiel steht (Welfare state policies in France and Germany : what is really at stake ?)," Labor and Demography, EconWPA 0406002, EconWPA.


This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.


Access and download statistics


When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp667. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Mark Fallak).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.