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The effects of demographic change on the labour market in Saxony – analyses and counter strategies

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  • Beate Henschel
  • Carsten Pohl

Abstract

The effects of demographic change will also affect the Free State of Saxony in the coming years. The population will decrease by more than 15% between 2000 and 2020. Simultaneously the average age of the population will increase by 6 years to 49 years. The reason for this is the high emigration numbers for young people, the low birth rates at the beginning of the 1990s and increasing life expectancy. In a study commissioned by the State Chancellery of Saxony, the Dresden subsidiary of the Ifo Institute examined the results of demographic change on the labour market in Saxony. Demographic changes will lead in particular to a lack of highly qualified workers. In the short and long term, selective immigration of highly qualified workers, increasing the retirement age, and attracting more people, especially well qualified women, to the work force could help prevent the foreseeable shortage of highly skilled employees. However, these measures will not suffice to meet the requirement of enterprises on a long-term basis. For this reason, the education of highly qualified human capital must be promoted. On the other hand, for lesser qualified workers demographic change will not ease their labour market situation since future job seekers here will clearly exceed job demand. For unemployment to fall in this sector of the labour market, incentives must be created that bring advantages for both employers and for employees.

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  • Beate Henschel & Carsten Pohl, 2004. "The effects of demographic change on the labour market in Saxony – analyses and counter strategies," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 57(14), pages 05-14, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:57:y:2004:i:14:p:05-14
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    2. Beate Henschel & Philip Lenecke, 2004. "Akademiker auf dem Arbeitsmarkt immer noch am besten aufgestellt," ifo Dresden berichtet, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 11(04), pages 36-40, August.
    3. Joachim Ragnitz & Heinz Schmalholz & Björn Ziegenbalg & Birgit Gehrke & Ulrich Schasse, 2010. "Sächsischer Technologiebericht 2009 : Gutachten in Zs.arbeit mit dem Niedersächsischen Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (NIW) im Auftrag des Sächsischen Staatsministeriums für Wissenschaft und Kunst," ifo Dresden Studien, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 50, July.
    4. Jana Vavrečková, 2009. "University-Educated Specialists, the Demand for Them and Their Standing on the Czech Labour Market [Terciárně vzdělaní odborníci a jejich potřeba na českém trhu práce]," Acta Oeconomica Pragensia, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2009(5), pages 20-35.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • J10 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - General
    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure

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