Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Focalização e Cobertura do Programa Bolsa-Família: Qual o Significado dos 11 Milhões de Famílias?

Contents:

Author Info

  • Sergei Soares
  • Rafael Perez Ribas
  • Fábio Veras Soares

Abstract

Em 2006, o Programa Bolsa Família (PBF) atingiu a sua plena expansão, pretendendo cobrir 11 milhões de famílias, que era a meta de cobertura previamente estabelecida e foi mantida até o ano de 2009. Este trabalho visa avaliar se o aumento na cobertura do programa provocou uma deterioração na sua focalização/ progressividade e se esta meta de fato leva à cobertura completa do público-alvo do PBF. Nossos resultados demonstram que o aumento da cobertura foi acompanhado por uma pequena redução na progressividade da transferência. Contudo, não encontramos evidência de que a expansão do programa nas unidades da federação em si causou piora na focalização. Além disso, a meta de 11 milhões não cobre todo o público-alvo devido aos inevitáveis erros de focalização e ao tamanho do programa. Levando em conta esses erros, estimamos que, para cobrir toda ou quase toda a população-alvo, o programa deveria expandir-se até alcançar 15 milhões de benefícios. Mostramos, ainda, que parte do erro de inclusão observado no programa pode ser explicada pela volatilidade da renda das famílias mais pobres. Isso faz com que o público-alvo real do PBF (aquele que está ou estará abaixo da linha de R$ 120) seja consideravelmente maior que o que seria calculado por meio de uma estimação transversal da distribuição de renda em um dado momento. In 2006, the Bolsa Família Program completed its expansion, expecting to cover 11 million beneficiary families. The objective of this article is to evaluate whether this implied in deterioration in the program’s efficient targeting and whether the target of 11 million families in fact covers the entirety of Bolsa Família’s eligible target population. Our results are twofold. First, the increase in the coverage was followed by a slightly fall in the targeting. However, we do not find evidences that the coverage increase caused a worse targeting by itself. In addition, that coverage target is insufficient to cover the eligible population due to targeting errors and the size of the program. Taking into consideration the inevitable targeting errors, we estimate that the program should expand up to 15 millions of beneficiary families. Additionally, we show that a considerable part of the so-called inclusion error may be explained by the income volatility of poor families that makes the real target population of Bolsa Família (those families that are or soon will be below R$ 120 per capita) considerably larger that that calculated using a cross-section estimate of the income distribution in a given moment.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.ipea.gov.br/portal/images/stories/PDFs/TDs/td_1396.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada - IPEA in its series Discussion Papers with number 1396.

as in new window
Length: 51 pages
Date of creation: Mar 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ipe:ipetds:1396

Contact details of provider:
Postal: SBS - Quadra 01 - Bloco J - Ed. BNDES, Brasília, DF - 70076-90
Phone: +55(061)315-5000
Fax: +55(61)321-1597
Email:
Web page: http://www.ipea.gov.br
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords:

Other versions of this item:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

No references listed on IDEAS
You can help add them by filling out this form.

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Berriel, Tiago C. & Zilberman, Eduardo, 2011. "Targeting the Poor: A Macroeconomic Analysis of Cash Transfer Programs," Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 726, FGV/EPGE Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
  2. Rafael de Sousa Camelo & Priscilla Albuquerque Tavares & Carlos César Santejo Saiani, 2009. "Alimentação, Nutrição e Saúde em Programas de Transferência de Renda: Evidências para o Programa Bolsa Família," Economia, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics], vol. 10(4), pages 685_713.
  3. Guilherme Lichand, 2010. "Decomposing the Effects of CCTs on Entrepreneurship," World Bank Other Operational Studies 10143, The World Bank.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ipe:ipetds:1396. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Fabio Schiavinatto).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.