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Slowdown in Emerging Markets: Sign of a Bumpy Road Ahead?

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  • Ms. Evridiki Tsounta

Abstract

Following very strong growth during the period 2000–12, emerging market economies (EMEs) experienced a slowdown in the last couple of years. This paper examines the supply-side drivers of the strong growth performance of 63 EMEs and investigates if the recent slowdown in growth is transitory or a more permanent phenomenon. We find that on average the recent slowdown is explained equally by structural and cyclical factors, although there are large variations across countries and regions. While the cyclical component of the slowdown can be corrected by countercyclical policies (provided that there is sufficient policy space), structural bottlenecks are harder to address. Given the expected moderation of capital accumulation and some natural constraints on labor, the strong growth momentum of 2000–12 is unlikely to be repeated going forward, unless TFP performance improves significantly via structural reforms.

Suggested Citation

  • Ms. Evridiki Tsounta, 2014. "Slowdown in Emerging Markets: Sign of a Bumpy Road Ahead?," IMF Working Papers 2014/205, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2014/205
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ms. Ghada Fayad & Mr. Roberto Perrelli, 2014. "Growth Surprises and Synchronized Slowdowns in Emerging Markets––An Empirical Investigation," IMF Working Papers 2014/173, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Barry Eichengreen & Donghyun Park & Kwanho Shin, 2017. "The Global Productivity Slump: Common and Country-Specific Factors," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 16(3), pages 1-41, Fall.
    3. Pitterle, Ingo & Haufler, Fabio & Hong, Pingfan, 2015. "Assessing emerging markets’ vulnerability to financial crisis," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 484-500.
    4. Besnik Taip FETAI & Besime Fekri MUSTAFI & Ariana Besnik FETAI, 2017. "An Empirical Analysis Of The Determinants Of Economic Growth In The Western Balkans," Scientific Annals of Economics and Business (continues Analele Stiintifice), Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, vol. 64(2), pages 245-254, June.
    5. M. Albert & C. Jude & C. Rebillard, 2015. "The Long Landing Scenario: Rebalancing from Overinvestment and Excessive Credit Growth. Implications for Potential Growth in China," Working papers 572, Banque de France.
    6. Luis M. Cubeddu & Alexander Culiuc & Ghada Fayad & Yuan Gao & Kalpana Kochhar & Annette J Kyobe & Ceyda Oner & Roberto Perrelli & Sarah Sanya & Evridiki Tsounta & Zhongxia Zhang, 2014. "Emerging Markets in Transition; Growth Prospects and Challenges," IMF Staff Discussion Notes 14/6, International Monetary Fund.

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